KC Chiefs: Can Alex Smith Be Salvaged

Alex Smith was a big reason why the Kansas City Chiefs collapsed to a 2-4 finish after a 7-3 start in 2014. Can coach Andy Reid fix Alex Smith, or do the Chiefs need to develop a new signal caller for the future?

Some people would look at Smith’s 91.2 passer rating, his 41/13 TD vs. INT ratio, and his overall 19-11 record since becoming Kansas City’s quarterback in 2013, and say that there’s nothing to fix.

Yet, statistics don’t tell the entire story.

The Chiefs won 5 straight games from week 7 through 11, defeating San Diego, St. Louis, NY Jets, Buffalo, and Seattle. The 7-3 Kansas City Chiefs were tied with Denver for first place in the AFC West.

Then the wheels came off.

The Chiefs lost three consecutive games to Oakland (who came into the game 0-10), Denver, and Arizona.

Alex Smith finished the season by defeating the Raiders at home and losing on the road in Pittsburgh, before missing the season’s final game against San Diego with an injury (19-7 win).

Film study on Nfl.com’s All-22 showed that after the Oakland defeat, teams packed the short zones in the middle of the field, and assigned man-to-man defenders to cover check downs out of the backfield.

Those tactics frustrated Alex Smith’s attempts to complete short passes, and killed the ball-control success of the offense.

You can see this problem suggested in the KC Chiefs late-season slide in 3rd down conversions. The team averaged 5.0 3rd down conversion per game for the season, but only 3.7 per game in the final 3 games.

The offensive line was also a huge part of the problem, allowing 27 sacks in the final six games after only giving up 22 in the first ten. That’s a jump to 4.5 sacks per game, up from 2.2 per game.

Ouch!

Head coach Andy Reid covered up this weakness with a lot of screen passes to running backs, receivers, and tight ends in the early part of the season. However, defenses finally figured out that Smith could not take a 5-step drop without getting harassed.

Pro Football Focus rated the Chiefs line 27th in the league. They also singled out guard Mike McGlynn as a “dud”.

Smith, however, does share some blame. On film, you could see he became skittish in the pocket late in the season and would often begin to scramble before there was any pressure. As a result, Alex Smith missed a number of plays that could have made the difference down the stretch.

My colleague Michael Tavis thinks Smith’s late-season collapse gives the Chiefs reason to draft Florida State QB Jameis Winston if he slides in the 2015 draft.

Notice that I’m well into this story, and I haven’t even mentioned the tiresome fact that Kansas City wide receivers didn’t catch a touchdown pass last season. That’s because I see the problem as more due to the offensive line than the wide receivers—or Smith.

In my opinion, fixing the offensive line is the only hope to ever see the return of the Alex Smith that lit up the Colts for 378 yards and 4 touchdowns in last season’s wild card loss. Video from that Colts game showed he really was a playmaker that day.

Before anyone calls Smith a “one game wonder”, he was also impressive against the Saints in the 2011 playoffs and showed significant improvement late in the 2013 season as he gained comfort in the Chiefs offense. He showed a similar improvement early in 2012 in his second season under Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco.

So, yeah, I think Alex Smith can be salvaged.

Unless, of course, he has taken too much of a battering to bring that guy back.

Next: KC Chiefs take Jameis Winston in Mock Draft

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