Total Points Over/Under: 54.5 points
As you may have picked up from the prop bet segment, I expect this to be a battle of the running backs. Neither team has shown that they can consistently stop the run, and both teams will have interests in keeping the opposing offenses off the field. When the running backs have a big day, the game gets shorter, the score drops, and the over dies.
If this becomes a battle of the quarterbacks, the over is extremely likely. That does not serve the interests of either team, so they will want to keep the ball on the ground. However, knowing how both coaches and offenses, stubbornness and a lack of self-control will definitely result in the high-powered offenses getting involved and making the over a possibility.
The run, which will be extremely effective, will only be used to open up the play-action and RPO plays.
For the Chiefs, this will put the ball in the hands of Travis Kelce, and Keenan Allen for the Chargers. When the ball gets in the hands of the elite talent, points will be scored, the ball will start moving faster and faster, and then we are in the realm of the over.
This scenario is only stopped if both teams have elite defensive players at almost every level which can shut down the big-play potential and keep the game slow. Where neither team’s defense is bad, and both teams have some elite talent throughout the defense, neither team’s defense is complete enough throughout to really make this an achievable goal.
To make this even worse, both teams have injury concerns on defense. For the Chiefs, Frank Clark is doubtful, while Chris Jones is questionable. The Chargers’ Joey Bosa did not practice this week and is questionable this Sunday, while Chris Harris is out. There may be a lack of pass rush, which only gives the quarterbacks the ability to make this game a shootout.
I am taking the over, which goes against my personal principle of betting the under on divisional games.