Kansas City Royals vs. San Francisco Giants: Game Two Preview

Oct 11, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Yordano Ventura (30) pitches in the first inning against the Kansas City Royals in game two of the 2014 ALCS playoff at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

With their 7-1 game 1 beating now behind them, the Kansas City Royals now face a semi-critical situation in Wednesday’s game 2 at Kauffman Stadium.

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As is well-known in franchise lore, the 1985 Royals were the first team to drop the first two games at home to come back and win the World Series. The 2014 Royals don’t want to try to emulate their predecessors.

Tonight, the starting lineups remain the same as game 1, with the exception of the starting pitchers. Twenty-three year old rookie Yordano Ventura takes the mound for Kansas City, opposed by veteran Jake Peavy for the Giants.

That pairing figures to favor Kansas City, pretty much any way you slice it.

Traditional stat lines show a clear edge for Ventura. The Kansas City rookie went 14-10 on the season with a 3.20 ERA in 183.0 innings, to go with his 159 strikeouts. Peavy was a much more pedestrian 7-13, with a 3.73 ERA in the National League, which does not use the designated hitter. Peavy logged 158 strikeouts (in 202.2 innings) and, in general, lacked Ventura’s electric stuff.

Ventura had the highest average fastball in the major leagues at 97 mph according to pitchf/x data, and lit the gun up as high as 103 mph this season. Peavy’s much more mundane 90mph average means he needs to get hitters out with craft more than power.

Aside from raw stuff, Ventrua also has the advantage that none of the Giants have ever faced him before—a fact that usually favors pitchers. We do know that Giants hitters like fastballs, and they have handled hard-throwing pitchers well this season.

Meanwhile, the Royals have faced Jake Peavy numerous times when he played for the Chicago White Sox. Over his career, Peavy has a less-than-impressive 4.97 ERA—including OPS numbers of 1.214 vs. Billy Butler (33 ABs), 1.182 vs. Alcides Escobar (22 ABs), and .915 vs. Alex Gordon (28 ABs).

Peavy’s career triple slash against hitters on the current KC roster is an uninspiring (for him) .296/.346/.490.

Of course, many stat heads do not buy into head to head statistics because of the small sample sizes that are often involved in such measurements. For example, no one on the Kansas City roster has faced Peavy more than Butler’s 33 ABs.

Even so, Royals hitters will be familiar with Peavy’s motion and know his pickoff moves when they get on base. That familiarity gives a decided edge to the Royals.

However, the Royals could struggle with Peavy’s breaking stuff on the big stage. ESPN’s Buster Olney, for example, contends that the Royals were over-anxious in game 1, which contributed to poor at bats during the critical 3rd inning in which Kansas City failed to score with runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs.

Among the hitters, the best news to come from Tuesday’s game was Salvador Perez’s high home run to left field on a Madison Bumgarner inside fastball. Salvy had clearly worn down in the 2nd half of this season after catching more games than anyone in MLB. Hopefully, the 5 days of rest Perez logged after KC swept the Orioles in the ALCS has re-energized him for the World Series. The Kansas City offense could use the boost.

We can, however, talk all we want before games. With the World Series, the whole baseball world is trying to make sense of what is about to come. But, most of it is pointless hype that fans indulge in because we’re anxious for the big show.

Frankly, on any given day—you just don’t know until they play the game.

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