KC Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills, Week 5 spread: Chiefs by 3
In a game that will likely come down to whichever team gets the ball last, three-point spreads are unbelievably stressful. Not only are you trying to predict which team gets the ball last, but you are also trying to guess the exact score, circumstances, and result of that drive.
I have come to a decision on this line, but only after a few days of lost sleep and a journal full of scribbles straight out of a mental ward. This train of thought is strange, but follow me.
The only way that the Chiefs cover the spread is if they either have a touchdown lead and stop the Bills on the final drive or if the game is tied and they score the go-ahead touchdown with little to no time left.
Andy Reid has been extremely cautious and conservative and his clutch time drives, so the second option is unlikely. The first option is more likely, especially if the Bills make some mistakes throughout the game, but the Chiefs are likely to make just as many mistakes.
Taking the Bills with the spread is a winning ticket if the Chiefs win via go-ahead field goal, the Chiefs stop the Bills final drive while ahead by three or less, or the Bills win by any means. There are too many variables that would push me to go with the less safe option.
I am taking the Bills with the spread. I am not taking a decision on the final result because no one is forcing me to, and I have been wrong twice this season.