KU Basketball: Risk Too High For Wayne Selden Jr. To Stay At Kansas

Wayne Selden Jr., in a surprise move, decided to leave KU basketball and declare for the 2016 NBA Draft for ultimately legitimate reasons.

On Tuesday, Wayne Selden Jr. made the decision to declare for the 2016 NBA Draft. With the announcement of his intentions to leave KU Basketball, he released this sincere statement.

“The last three years have been a true blessing to experience as a Jayhawk, an opportunity I am so thankful for,” Selden said.

“That being said, I’d like to announce that I will be declaring for the 2016 NBA draft.”

“It has always been our plan that my college experience would be three years.”

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“I plan to hire representation in the coming weeks. I want to thank the Kansas fans for their support as a Jayhawk over the years.”

“The support is unmatched and has been the driving force in games. I would like to thank each of my brothers.”

“Together we battled through the tough and celebrated the good. Giving our all for one another.”

“I’d also like to thank Coach Self and the entire Kansas basketball staff. I’ve received three years of meaningful experiences and guidance both on and off the court.”

Selden also released the following video to express his gratitude to KU basketball.

Selden certainly spoke highly of KU basketball, but his exit presents some problems for the Jayhawks moving forward.

The loss of Selden in addition to Perry Ellis mean that KU Basketball must now replace its top two scorers from this past season.

Initially, I was confused by Selden’s decision to enter the NBA Draft. Much like the Cheick Diallo‘s decision to enter the NBA draft, Selden leaving Lawrence, Kansas for the pros caught me off guard.

In his three seasons as a member of the KU basketball team, Selden had shows quite amount of improvement from his freshmen year. Below are comparisons to his freshmen and junior year stats with KU basketball.

Freshman Year Averages for 2013-2014 KU Basketball Season

29.2 minutes per game (3rd on team)
9.7 points per game (4th)
2.6 rebounds per game (6th)
43.7 percent from field (6th, minimum 50 field goals attempted)
32.8 percent from three (4th, minimum 30 three pointers attempted)
107.1 offensive rating or points per 100 possessions (10th, minimum 100 minutes played)
107.9 defensive rating or points allowed per 100 possessions (10th, minimum 100 minutes played)

Junior Year Averages for 2015-2016 KU Basketball Season

29.8 minutes per game (4th)
13.8 points per game (2nd)
3.4 rebounds per game (4th)
47.4 percent from field (7th)
39.2 percent from three (5th)
113.9 offensive rating (6th)
100.9 defensive rating (10th)

I’ll admit that defensive rating is skewed a little bit towards big men, but, regardless, Selden improved every year in this statistic.

In addition, every other stat was the best of is career in his junior year. Seeing that this year was a coming out party of sorts, why would he choose to leave?

Well, in Selden’s freshmen season, something profound happened to a player named Mitch McGary. McGary was uncertain about entering the 2013 NBA Draft after the 2013 season.

In a 2013 article by SNY.TV’s Adam Zagoria, he quoted two separate scouts that projected McGary to be a first round pick.

What made things complicated for McGary was this 2014 NBA Mock Draft by Draft Express that I had to scour the Internet Archive to find. On April 14th of 2013, Draft Express projected McGary to be drafted 9th overall in the 2014 NBA Draft the following year.

Assuming that his draft stock would benefit from another year of college, McGary chose to play for the University of Michigan for one more year. McGary, much like Walter Donovan and Elsa Schneider from Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, had chosen poorly.

McGary’s 2014 season was filled with injuries that caused his draft stock to sink as low as the the second round in this Draft Express mock draft. Luckily, McGary’s stock rose enough for the Oklahoma City Thunder to basically draft-and-stash McGary in the hopes he would develop later on.

The Thunder did not expect to get a rotational player for their Championship runs, so they reached for a player who wouldn’t be salty about a delay of playing time. Even if McGary still ended up getting drafted in the first round, the loss of salary from 9th overall to 21st overall is around $2,936,800 over three years according to the 2014-2015 rookie pay scales.

Even though these draft stocks were just projections, McGary was convinced prior to his last year at Michigan that an extra year would be good for his draft stock.

As a result, the NCAA profited off of McGary’s play for another year, and the NCAA was not accountable in any way for the loss in value McGary experienced from playing another year. If McGary sustained a career-ending injury, then the NCAA would not have to pay any of his medical bills, even if the injury was sustained during collegiate play.

Again, I’ll concede that draft stock is in many ways theoretical and in is in no way official or guaranteed. Regardless of this fact, if McGary still would have received a guaranteed salary that year, and his medical bills would be covered by his NBA team if he sustained a career-ending injury during play.

McGary did still end up getting a guaranteed salary despite injury prior to receiving a contract, but, given his circumstances, McGary got a little lucky.

This brings us to Selden. If Selden plays another year, he could boost his draft stock by playing another year for KU basketball. In fact, he could have even become the focal point of Kansas’ offense, but what if Selden sustained career-threatening injuries next season?

The answer is Selden could risk going completely undrafted. Currently Selden sits at pick number 41 in Draft Express’ latest 2016 NBA Mock Draft. Although this isn’t a spectacular draft position, Selden would still receive an NBA paycheck, even if it is in the second round.

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If he plays another year of KU basketball, he could increase his draft stock, but any injury could severely hurt his chances of making an NBA roster. In addition, staying another year will force Selden to go another year unpaid, and with no guarantee of financial growth or security.

Is it smart for every player to enter the NBA Draft once their stock hits the second round? As weird as it feels to say, but yes I do think this is the case. Playing any collegiate sport for the NCAA comes with an enormous amount of risk that is in no way mitigated by any governing body of said organization.

It’s tough to justify playing another year for no wages, no sort of financial security, no guarantee of financial growth, and not a lot of guarantee in general, in what largely amounts to a gamble. Betting on yourself is an honorable practice in the NBA where all players receive guaranteed salaries, but doing such a thing while playing for the NCAA is pretty reckless.

Until the NCAA corrects the high-risk environment it has created for its athletes, collegiate athletes will continue to leave for the pros as soon as possible. As much as people like to chastise players like Selden for leaving early, playing collegiate athletics any longer than you have to is kind of like betting all your rent money on a basketball game. It could pay off big if all goes well, but things could go very bad if things don’t go your way.

Next: Where Does Bill Self Rank On This List?

Although it would have been cool to see Selden make another run at the NCAA Tournament Championship in 2017, I respect and understand his decision to enter the NBA Draft early. I hope that the NCAA stops pretending that not paying its athletes and encouraging players to risk their careers for their profit is the right thing to do.

Do you think Selden made the right decision? Do you agree that all collegiate basketball players with second round projections should enter the NBA?

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