Kansas City Royals: How To Beat Dallas Keuchel
By Alec Tilson
The KC Royals have their hands full today in Game 3 against the Houston Astros.
Kansas City Royals Game 3 starter Edinson Volquez has been the stabilizing force in the rotation this season, but he hasn’t been anything close to Astros starter Dallas Keuchel.
Keuchel (20-8) has started 33 games, owns a 2.48 ERA in 232 innings and has posted a career-high 8.38 K/9 this season. His 6.1 fWAR (FanGraphs) is good for sixth among pitchers in all of baseball and third best in the American League. So there’s no simple formula for beating him today, but there’s still some things to look for.
He’s a fastball, slider, changeup pitcher, and the slider is devastating. Everything is down and nothing is straight, and he’s a bulldog competitor.
According to FanGraphs.com, opponents are batting .291 against Keuchel’s four-seam fastball, while hitting .115 against his slider.
Keuchel’s 13.6 percent HR/FB (home run-to-flyball) rate is the tenth highest among qualified pitchers and the highest of any pitcher in the top 30 of fWAR. His 66.3% groundball rate is the second-highest of qualified pitchers.
In other words, he’s a groundball pitcher all the way, but the rare instance he elevates a pitch (by design or by mistake), the batter has a good chance of taking it deep.
Number one for the Royals is to look for anything up.
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Second, the Royals must hit Keuchel’s fastball. It sits at only 89 or 90 MPH but it’s a pitch that continues to baffle hitters, according to ESPN‘s Jerry Crasnick:
"“You look up and he’s throwing 89 or 90 or 91, or whatever it is, but it doesn’t play like a true 90-mph fastball,” Hosmer said. “He’ll throw pitches that start out as strikes and then go out of the zone, and they’re hard to lay off. And he throws all his off-speed pitches with that same arm action. It makes for a tough assignment.”"
The Royals must force fastball counts and they must hunt those fastballs. It’s a better plan than trying to his his slider anyway.
According to FanGraphs.com, opponents are batting .291 against Keuchel’s four-seam fastball, while hitting .115 against his slider. (His two-seam fastball is his go-to, and opponents are hitting just .221 against it this year.)
Lastly, jump on him early.
This one isn’t always possible, but at times Keuchel has struggled early. He gave up six earned runs in the first inning at Texas a few weeks ago, and the Royals tagged him for four runs in the first inning in late-July. (via ESPN.com)
By the way, a few of those Keuchel losses are deceiving. One loss was 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 K. Another loss was 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 K and yet another was 7 IP, 3 ER, 4 K. He could easily be 23-5.
Still, he’s not Clayton Kershaw. He’s 32 innings over his previous career-high of 200 innings pitched and he’s hittable for this Kansas City offense. The Royals have beat him once this year, and it’s time to do it again.
How do you think the Royals can attack Dallas Keuchel?