KC Royals: Mike Moustakas Must Beat The Shift

Kansas City Royals 3rd baseman Mike Moustakas is at a career crossroads. He must defeat the defensive shifts that teams unveiled in 2014, or else his career will fail.

The upcoming 2015 season is the year that will determine if Moustakas will establish himself as a viable major-league starter, or else he will sink into the career endgame of backup/minor-league filler.

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There really is no middle ground.

Last year was a disaster for Mike Moustakas. The 26-year-old former top prospect put up a dismal triple slash of .212/.271/.361 with 15 home runs in 500 plate appearances. His OPS+ (on base percentage plus slugging normalized for park factors and opponents) stood at a mere 74 (26% below league average).

Even worse was Mike Moustakas’ .220 batting average balls in play (BABIP). Last year, the league average player had a BABIP of .300.

BABIP is a stat that can suffer high variance. Sabermetric analysts will often attribute an unusually high, or low, BABIP in a single season to “luck”. In Mike Moustakas’ case, however, it’s clear that the low BABIP was no accident. The .220 BABIP was due to his inability to handle the shift.

Through June 10 of last season, Moustakas was hitting a mere .033 against defenses using the shift. Though he rallied for a solid June and July, Moustakas struggled again in August and September. Overall, his 1st and 2nd half hitting splits had virtually identical OPS averages of .627 and .637.

That’s just not going to get it done.

Struggling against the shift wasn’t anything new for Moustakas. In 2013, Moustakas’ BABIP against the shift was a mere .192, versus .246 against non-shifted defenses.

What’s changed is that teams started employing more shifts against Mike Moustakas in 2014.

Moustakas’ strong post-season performance did give Kansas City Royals fans hope that Moustakas might have solved the problem. In 15 post-season games, Moustakas hit a useful .231/.259/.558 with 5 home runs for a healthy OPS of .817.

In game 2 of the American League Division Series (ALDS), Mike Moustakas laid down a bunt single against the Los Angeles Angels’ shift. He also stroked opposite field base hits against the Angels and Orioles.

Moustakas’ determination to take breaking pitches the opposite way against the shifts, might have led Kansas City’s playoff opponents into throwing him an unusual quantity of fastballs (70.27% vs. percentages that fluctuated between 63.27% and 57.29% during the regular season).

Those high number of heaters could explain Moustakas’ October power outburst, because he proved in the minors that he can crush fastballs. Moustakas won the Sporting News Minor League Hitter of the Year award in 2010 because he smashed 36 minor-league home runs in AA and AAA.

Moustakas needs to come to spring training with the clear purpose of beating the shift. He must continue his post-season adjustment of taking breaking pitches the opposite way and looking to drive fastballs.

Economist Robert Lucas formulated what is known as the Lucas critique to examine tactical shifts in response to an opponents’ historical performance in politics and business. The Lucas critique suggests that baseball’s league-wide increase in defensive shifts will not continue to work in the long-term, because the re-alignment opens up weaknesses that opponents will learn to exploit.

Expect teams to adjust as early as this season to beat the shift. Players will adjust their hitting stroke. Teams might also begin to emphasize spray hitting when building rosters.

However, the Lucas critique doesn’t necessarily help Mike Moustakas. He still has to show he can make the individual adjustment to a difficult reflex skill that involves fractions of a second.

Whether Moustakas can learn to beat the shift, or not, will determine his major-league future.

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