Should KC Chiefs Sign Larry Fitzgerald
Larry Fitzgerald may have played his last game as an Arizona Cardinal Saturday against the Panthers, and the Kansas City Chiefs have a desperate need for a Wide Receiver, so should the Chiefs pursue Fitzgerald this offseason?
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Fitzgerald had statistically the worst season of his career in 2014 but he also didn’t have a lot of help from the Quarterback carousel that was the Cardinals this season. He finished with 63 Receptions, 784 Yards, and 2 Touchdowns. Could that be a sign that the skills of the 31 year-old receiver are diminishing? The statistics say yes.
Fitzgerald had five straight 1,000 yard seasons from 2007-2011 and was only 54 yards in 2006 away from making it seven straight seasons because he also had 1,409 yards in his sophomore season in 2005.
Following his 80 receptions, 1,411 yards, and 8 touchdowns in 2011, Fitzgerald had a down year with 71 receptions, 798 yards, and 4 touchdowns in 2012. In 2013 he had a bit of a bounce back year with 82 receptions, 954 yards, and 10 touchdowns, but regressed again in 2014. So the last three seasons for fitzgerald look like this.
Larry Fitzgerald
2012 – 71 Receptions, 798 Yards, 4 Touchdowns
2013 – 82 Receptions, 954 Yards, 10 Touchdowns
2014 – 63 Receptions, 784 Yards, 2 Touchdowns
Total – 216 Receptions, 2,536 Yards, 16 Touchdowns
The leading receiver for the Chiefs the past three seasons is Dwayne Bowe, so lets take a look at his last three seasons to compare.
Dwayne Bowe
2012 – 59 Receptions, 801 Yards, 3 Touchdowns
2013 – 57 Receptions, 673 Yards, 5 Touchdowns
2014 – 60 Receptions, 754 Yards, 0 Touchdowns
Total – 176 Receptions, 2,228 Yards, 8 Touchdowns
The most glaring difference is the touchdown total, where Fitzgerald doubles Bowe’s touchdown total with 16 in the previous three years to Bowe’s eight. The statistics don’t always tell the whole truth, because you have to factor in that the Chiefs have a more run focused offense which asks Bowe to block (which he is very good at) and leaves him with less receptions, compared to the Cardinal’s offense which is pass focused, and Fitgerald is the star go to guy.
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There are things you can do to get a better reading on the statistics. So if you break down yards per reception in that three year stretch from 2012-2014, you get a fair comparison. Fitzgerald averaged 11.74 yards per reception, compared to Bowe’s 12.66 yards per reception. That tells you that if Bowe would have gotten as many receptions as Fitgerald, he would have out produced him in total yards.
The argument could be had that targets should be included because Fitzgerald has some of the best hands in the game. So lets take a look at targets from 2012-2014
Fitgerald – 394 Targets, 216 Receptions, 55% completion
Bowe – 312 Targets, 176 Receptions, 56% completion
The numbers are very close but Bowe has the narrow advantage on catching a better percentage of his targets.
Bowe has had a couple off the field issues, but it is hard to argue there is a less selfish player in the league. A lot of receivers are divas that complain about their targets or say they are not being used correctly in the offense, but Bowe goes out every week and does what is asked of him.
Fitzgerald would be a great addition to have opposite of Bowe, but getting Fitzgerald and keeping Bowe is a very unlikely scenario. The Chiefs should pass on Fitzgerald and go for a young talented receiver that can learn under Bowe, not a receiver that is statistically on the decline.