Patrick Mahomes' MVP Odds Make Big Move Following Rashee Rice Uncertainty

Patrick Mahomes is now +500 at FanDuel to win his third NFL MVP
Patrick Mahomes is now +500 at FanDuel to win his third NFL MVP / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Patrick Mahomes already had the best odds to win NFL MVP, but he surprisingly became an even bigger favorite over the weekend, jumping from +600 to +500 at FanDuel Sportsbook on Monday.

Considering the uncertainty surrounding Rashee Rice's potential suspension and the questions that could be raised about Kansas City's offense, it's surprising to see the jump come now when the receiving core could theoretically be weakened.

Mahomes has a 16.67% implied probability to win his third MVP, an honor matched or bested by only Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Jim Brown, Brett Favre, and Johnny Unitas.

Patrick Mahomes' NFL MVP Odds Spike as Big Favorite

Josh Allen is now +800, followed by C.J. Stroud and Joe Burrow at +1000, then Lamar Jackson (+1300) and Jordan Love (+1400).

Burrow fell from +900 to +1000 since the middle of February while Lamar dropped from +1200 to +1300. Justin Herbert went from +1400 to +1600, so it seems sportsbooks didn't love the offensive additions the Chargers made.

Rashee Rice's situation aside, there's a lot to love about the Chiefs' offense in 2024-25. Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy represent major offseason pick-ups and the team kept every major contributor. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman, for now, are gone, though the aforementioned speedsters plus fourth-round pick Jared Wiley can take care of that.

Mahomes completed 67.2% of his passes last year for 4,183 yards and 27 TDs to 14 interceptions. It represented the worst passing numbers in a fully healthy season of his career aside from completion percentage, but he ran for a career-high 389 yards to offset that. With an improved collection of skill-position players and Isiah Pacheco handling the backfield load, Mahomes will have a much better environment to flourish.

Allen and Stroud are both worthy adversaries. The Texans, in particular, should have a deadly offense after trading with Buffalo for Stefon Diggs. Houston's second-year signal caller might be in the perfect situation to put up numbers, since Kansas City's elite defense could mitigate Mahomes' need to score.

For now, it looks like sportsbooks have Mahomes as a heavy favorite to enter rarified air as a quarterback.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.