The Kansas City Chiefs' season is still alive after what was a paramount conference win against the Indianapolis Colts. Now, focus quickly shifts to a Week 13 Thanksgiving Day showdown in Arlington, TX, to take on the surging Dallas Cowboys in a game where the Chiefs yet again have to win to stay in the playoff race.
This Cowboys team is a tale of two sides of the ball, as they are one of the more potent offenses in the NFL, scoring 29.1 points per game (4th) and first in passing yards per outing (266.8). The defense, however, ranks low in both points allowed (28.5, 31st) and total yards (377.5, 29th).
This Chiefs team was able to produce nearly 500 yards of offense versus the Colts, but penalties and red zone woes continue to haunt Patrick Mahomes and company. While the Cowboys aren't the toughest matchup on paper, it's clear the Chiefs can't overestimate their holiday opponents if they want to further grow their momentum.
Chiefs Must Capitalize on Cowboys' Generous Defense
It’s been a roller coaster of a season for this Chiefs offense. Some weeks, they look like one of the league’s best offenses (which the advanced metrics do say they are), and other games, the Chiefs look like they failed to put together a game plan. A short turnaround versus a vulnerable Cowboys defense is a chance for this offense to match the intensity required.
The Cowboys and Defensive Coordinator Matt Eberflus play zone coverage 78% of the time, per Sharp Football Analysis, which ranks sixth-highest in the league. The Chiefs have feasted on zone coverage for years, as it’s what head coach Andy Reid’s offensive system is built around, attacking. Dallas plays a very simple 4-3 defensive scheme with a lot of inexperience at corner and a mishmash of slower safeties who have been rotating in and out due to injuries.
I expect Mahomes to come out firing early, similar to the game against Denver, where he took multiple downfield shots on the first two possessions, in an attempt to stretch out this defense. Whether he connects on them or not, it will open up the middle of the field even more, giving guys like Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, and JuJu Smith-Schuster room to work with.
While receiver Xavier Worthy will play in this game, it’s very apparent that he is still fighting through multiple nagging injuries in the form of a shoulder injury suffered in week one, and a knee and ankle injury that has kept Worthy on the injury report. Tyquan Thornton did see an increase in snaps last week, but he only received one target deep downfield that was overthrown despite him getting good separation. If Mahomes takes some shots early, as I said, a couple of them need to be to Thornton because his speed and ball-tracking abilities are the best on the Chiefs right now.
Kansas City also benefits from the return of running back Isiah Pacheco, who has been out since Week 8 with a knee injury. It couldn’t come at a better time after veteran Kareem Hunt toted the ball 30 times against the Colts and no doubt needs the load taken off of him a little bit. Since the acquisition of star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, the Cowboys' run defense has taken a big leap. The Chiefs project to be without guard Trey Smith for a while after sustaining a high ankle sprain, so running the ball may be a tougher task than previously thought.
When it comes to pass rush, the Cowboys do most of their damage from the inside with a mighty trio of Williams, Kenny Clark, and Osa Odighizuwa, who have combined for 7.5 sacks this season. Without Smith, the Chiefs' interior is a little worse for wear, but given how good Creed Humphrey and Kingsley Suamataia have been, they should be able to hold up well throughout. It’s clear to see that the Chiefs' first-round pick this year is an absolute hit with left tackle Josh Simmons, who should perform dominantly once again, as the Cowboys don’t threaten much off the edge.
What I talked about in last week's preview about the Colts having advantages where the Chiefs are weakest is not the same in this matchup against Dallas. The Cowboys are strongest in the interior of their defensive line, which just so happens to have been Kansas City’s biggest strength on offense for years. Mahomes should have ample time in the pocket to deliver strikes to receivers over the middle and deep parts of the field. I think this could be a breakout game for the Chiefs and Mahomes in particular, who has accounted for just one touchdown over the last three weeks.
Chiefs' Defense Shouldn't Fear Cowboys' Attack
Shifting now to the defensive side of the ball for the Chiefs, where, quite honestly, I feel a calm confidence with this unit. Steve Spagnuolo is one of football’s best defensive coordinators over the course of the modern era, and his in-game adjustments and one-off game plans are second to none. The Cowboys have a great quarterback in Dak Prescott, who has played very well this season, and will have his moments in this game, but I expect the Chiefs' defense to do what they always do. Bend but don’t break.
Dallas’ offense runs through a select number of players, and the only one who threatens in the run game is Javonte Williams. In 11 games, Williams has 896 rushing yards and eight scores on the ground. He’s had a career resurgence in Dallas after four years with the Denver Broncos and is a talented back with a varied skillset. The Chiefs have shut down all of the best rushing attacks in the league this year, and while Dallas is a pass-first offense, I think the Chiefs enter this game with the focus of stopping Williams on the ground.
Prescott and this passing game run through three guys, who have the ability to shred seemingly any defense on any given week. CeeDee Lamb is one of the league's top receivers, who can run any route from anywhere on the field and is excellent after the catch. George Pickens, in his first year in Dallas, leads the Cowboys in catches (67), yards (1,054), and TDs (8). He basically gives Dallas a second number-one receiver, which is a tall task for any defense to handle. Lastly, tight end Jake Ferguson, while not overly talented or athletic, is a fantastic on-field communicator through his route movements, making him Prescott’s favorite red-zone and short-down target. Ferguson has seven TDs to his name, but averages an unimpressive 7.1 yards per catch.
How the Chiefs decide to cover the Cowboys will probably change throughout the game, as Spagnuolo will want to disguise multiple coverages and keep Prescott guessing, so as not to get him in rhythm. Cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson have both played at an all-pro level this season, as the Chiefs have seemed to find their rotation in the back-seven, with safety Bryan Cook also playing lights out football.
Pass-rush for KC remains this team's Achilles heel, as the Chiefs just don’t have the personnel outside of Chris Jones and George Karlaftis to get consistent pressure with a four-man front. However, Spagnuolo did something last week that I could see him using to the Chiefs' benefit once again, and it’s very simple. Attack the QB by blitzing the daylights out of him. It thwarted QB Daniel Jones last week by speeding up his mental clock and forcing him into some errant throws.
Now, Prescott has performed much better than Jones in his career when under heavy pressure, but if the Chiefs can get to him early with exotic blitzes, forcing him to get the ball out quickly, it prompts Dallas into being a dink and dunk offense, which they do not excel in.
There are going to be times in this game when the Cowboys' pass-catchers make an excellent play simply because they are exceptionally talented, and they get paid too. Williams might even break off a couple of 15-20 yard rushes, because the Chiefs somehow miss three tackles. But more often than not, over the last three years, against any offense, no matter how dangerous, the Chiefs rarely give up more than the mid-twenties on defense, simply because they force teams into what they don’t feel comfortable doing.
Chiefs' Keys to Success on Thanksgiving
- Patrick Mahomes needs to start playing like an all-time great QB again
- The Chiefs attacking the Cowboys downfield all game
- Chiefs' defense holding the Cowboys to field goals, rather than TDs
- Special teams need to stop hurting the Chiefs