It’s been a sour season for Kansas City fans, as the Chiefs have faltered all season in the biggest moments. Last week’s loss to the Denver Broncos was another example and seemingly ended the Chiefs' streak of nine straight AFC West division titles, the second-longest division win streak in NFL history.
An all-important conference matchup versus the Indianapolis Colts in Week 12 is going to tell us a lot about the mental make-up of this year's Chiefs team. The Colts boast an 8-2 record, led by one of the best coaching staffs in the league and this year's best offensive player, running back Jonathan Taylor.
The Colts are well-rested coming off a bye week and looking to put a stranglehold on securing the team's first AFC South division title since 2014. The Chiefs cannot take this game lightly, as another loss would jeopardize any hopes of making the playoffs.
Chiefs Defense vs. Colts Offense
Now in his third season as the Colts' head coach, Shane Steichen calls the plays for this offense and deserves immense credit for the scheme he’s built and the trust and confidence he’s placed in his quarterback, Daniel Jones. Indianapolis ranks first in points per game (32.1), first in total yards (369.9), and in the top-10 in both third and fourth-down conversions this season. The Colts are a machine of an offense, and it starts in the trenches.
Left guard Quenton Nelson is about as good as it gets at the position, ranking first on Pro Football Focus with a 90.4 run blocking grade, and has given up just one penalty and no sacks all season. Colts Center Tanor Bortolini is an absolute stud of a 23-year-old, ranking second on PFF at his position, and has allowed zero sacks as well. Rounding out this offensive line are left tackle Bernhard Raimann, right guard Matt Goncalves, and right tackle Braden Smith, who have all played exceptionally well up to this point.
The Chiefs don’t have much of an inside presence other than Chris Jones, and while I thought Jones played perhaps his best game of the season against Denver, it still wasn’t enough to create consistent pressure. Edge rushers George Karlaftis and Charles Omenihu have flashed this season, but against the caliber of tackles this week, it’s all about containing the run game and fitting gaps.
As I mentioned before, Taylor is having the best season of his career, leading the league by a significant margin in rushing yards (1,139), rushing touchdowns (15), and yards per attempt (6.0). Taylor is a do-it-all back in both the run game and the pass game. He can get the tough yardage if needed, but excels in the open field with tackle-breaking ability, acceleration, and legit speed. The Chiefs' defense has consistently halted the run game when needed this season, and this week will be the toughest test yet. Linebackers Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill, and Leo Chenal cannot afford to miss tackles when Taylor gets up to the second level of the defense.
One of the biggest stories of this NFL season has been the resurrection of former New York Giants QB Daniel Jones. After six seasons and a 24-44-1 record with the G-men, Jones has found a new home in Indy and has flourished under the tutelage of Steichen. Jones is averaging career highs in both yards per attempt (8.3) and yards per completion (11.9). He is not afraid to attack downfield, and it’s been made easier to do when defenses are selling out to stop the run. Steichen loves to spread the ball around as the Colts have three different pass-catchers, each with 500-plus receiving yards.
First-round rookie Tyler Warren leads the team and has already formed into one of the best tight ends in the game. At 6’6” 255 lbs, Warren is a monster in the open field, has quick feet, and is also a plus-blocker in the run game. Next up is the receiving duo of Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce, who both stand 6’4” and 6’3” respectively, and are two of the best jump ball winners in the league. Pittman has been one of the better all-around receivers in the league for a while now, and Pierce just might be the best deep-ball threat in the league with 20.9 yards per catch.
The Chiefs' secondary could be in for a long day with the overwhelming size the Colts possess, especially down in the red zone.
Chiefs Offense vs Colts Defense
I’m not sure what to make of this Chiefs offense. They were understandably struggling early in the season without their top weapons, but Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice returned, the Chiefs shredded teams, and it looked like the Chiefs' offense of old. However, I feel safe saying that perhaps the reason they looked so pristine was because of the favorable matchups versus the Baltimore Ravens, Las Vegas Raiders, and Washington Commanders, some of the worst defenses in the league. The last two performances against the Bills and Broncos make it seem as though this offense has no plan and no identity.
For starters, Kansas City lacks any semblance of a run game, and while the return of Isiah Pacheco (which remains to be seen) will help that out, even when the run game is working, HC Andy Reid refuses to stick with it. The Colts rank fifth in rushing yards allowed. Part of that is because they’ve been up in almost every game this year, so teams are forced to pass, and another reason for this is that they are very sound in their run fits and lane integrity. In today's NFL, not having a ground game that you can consistently count on is a death sentence, and has been one of the Chiefs' biggest weaknesses this season.
Coaching this Indianapolis defense is former Cincinnati Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, who gave Patrick Mahomes fits whenever matching up against one another. Anarumo knows the Chiefs' tendencies on offense and how to attack certain route concepts. The Colts' secondary got a major boost recently as well, adding cornerback Sauce Gardner in a trade, who nearly had a pick-six in his first game with the team. Gardner is an excellent cover corner, and I would imagine shadow receiver Rashee Rice for the majority of the game.
Kenny Moore II is another good corner and incredibly fast, which will make it difficult for Worthy or Hollywood Brown to create much separation in the intermediate parts of the field. Safeties Nick Cross and Cam Bynum rank first and third on this defense in total tackles and have combined for 3.5 sacks. Anarumo, much like Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuluo, is very willing to usher his safeties down into the box and bring chaotic blitzes.
Tight end Travis Kelce had his best game of the season last week, accounting for 91 yards and a TD. At 36 years old, he’s still Mahomes’ most reliable target, but how he handles more punishment on his body as the season continues will be interesting to see. What I would love to see from the Chiefs and would give me hope about their self-scouting is giving deep-ball receiver Tyquan Thornton more opportunities in this game. Since the return of Rice and Worthy, Thornton’s time on the field has diminished greatly, which is a shame when you consider how many big plays he’s made for Kansas City this year and the clear chemistry he and Mahomes have. Thornton played just 16 snaps versus the Broncos. I’d like to see that number doubled.
In my week 11 preview versus the Broncos, I said the biggest predictor of this game for the Chiefs is Mahomes outplaying Bo Nix. Mahomes failed to do so, and the Chiefs lost. That sentiment does not ring true to me this week. The NFL is all about matchups, and everything the Chiefs have done well this season, the Colts have an answer and an advantage at it.
Even if Mahomes throws for 300 yards and three TDs and reminds us that he still has hope for the season, it might not matter if Jones plays mistake-free football, makes two to three big plays late, and Indianapolis runs the ball down Kansas City's throat for four quarters.
How can the Chiefs beat the Colts?
- Contain Jonathan Taylor by sending the linebackers downhill
- Chiefs' safeties playing the ball aggressively and forcing Daniel Jones into turnovers
- Start fast on offense, utilizing Rice and Worthy on crossing routes
- No more penalties