The Kansas City Chiefs are rolling in Week 8, winning four of their last five games. Star wideout Rashee Rice scored two touchdowns in his return, quarterback Patrick Mahomes is playing some of the football of his career, and kicker Harrison Butker finally had a mistake-free kicking day last week, leaving fans hopeful that the good vibes will continue.
The Chiefs face a Washington Commanders squad that is off to a rocky start to the season. The Commanders come into this Monday night matchup 3-4, on a two-game losing streak, and without superstar quarterback Jayden Daniels. Backup QB Marcus Mariota will make his third start of the season, and has shown enough on tape for Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to put a true game plan together.
It’s another must-win game for the Chiefs, as a fourth loss nearly halfway through the season will likely take them out of number one seed contention.
Chiefs Offense vs. Commanders Defense
League leader in total touchdown passes (18) and second in total yards (2,050), Mahomes is on pace for a statistical season, more in line with his early playing days than the last couple of years. He clearly feels more comfortable in the pocket with a newly improved offensive line and a healthy receiving core that gives him countless options.
Washington’s defense has continuously been torched over the middle of the field this season, as it ranks 27th in passing yards allowed. Bobby Wagner leads this team in total tackles with a whopping 73 takedowns; however, Wagner isn’t the athlete he once was and has had significant issues covering receivers and tight ends from the slot, as he allows a 73% completion percentage and nearly 13 yards per catch.
Well, that’s bad news for Washington because Rice lives from the slot, as does TE Travis Kelce. Mahomes has been more than willing this season to take what the defense gives him, and if that’s going to be eight-yard slant routes that Rice turns into 20 yards due to yards after catch, Mahomes will take that all game.
The Commanders are one of the very few teams that run a lot of one-safety looks, leaving Jeremy Reaves as the lone backfield defender. To compensate for the cover-one coverage, Washington prefers to play three cornerbacks and have any one of the three play deep on any given play in an effort to keep the quarterback guessing. The issue with that is 29-year-old veteran Marshon Lattimore is about as washed up as it gets at the position.
Lattimore is no match for the explosive burst of any of the Chiefs' speedsters at receiver and will get picked on by Mahomes in this game. I would be very surprised if the Chiefs don’t come out early in this matchup and toss a couple of deep shots to Xavier Worthy and Tyquan Thornton. It would open up the middle of the field even more and force the Commanders to shift their focus away from stopping the run, which is what this defense actually does somewhat well.
Defensive tackles Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw are multi-year starters and very effective from the inside. The two have been playing the run very well this year, with 40 combined tackles, while Payne has tallied a sack and five pass deflections as well. Running back Isiah Pacheco was able to rumble into the end zone last week for his first rushing score of the season; however, I would expect another quiet day from him as the Chiefs will elect to go pass-heavy once again.
Offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor continues to be penalty-free through the last few weeks and has paired that with excellent pass protection from the right tackle spot. Jaylon Moore will get the start again, continuing his rock-solid stint at left tackle instead of Josh Simmons. Without their top three edge-rushers, lost to injured reserve most notably Dorance Armstrong (5.5 sacks), the Commanders present no real threat from the edge, aside from 36-year-old Von Miller.
The game plan for the Chiefs will be similar to the one last week versus the Raiders, in my opinion. Head coach Andy Reid will dial up man and zone beaters over the middle of the field, specifically for Rice and Kelce. Mahomes will take two to three deep shots down the field, and Pacheco will get his touches at the end to seal it. It should be yet another efficient day from the league's sixth-highest scoring offense.
Commanders Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
Without their starting QB and facing a Chiefs defense that ranks fifth in passing yards allowed, the Commanders will lean on their biggest strength: running the football. Rookie RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt has emerged as the lead back, rushing for 377 yards on 5.2 yards per carry and four TDs. Bringing him down is a chore at 5’11”, 210 lbs. Washington also uses Jeremy McNichols as a change of pace receiving back, who is more than capable of making linebackers miss in the open field.
Mariota has started in two games and played in three this season. In that time, he’s thrown for a mere three scores and two interceptions on a 60.3% completion percentage. While he tormented the Chiefs a time or two over his playing days in Tennessee, the 2025 version of Mariota is nothing to write home about and falters quickly under pressure. A primetime matchup in Arrowhead isn’t exactly the environment the former first-round pick thrives under.
Mariota is protected by an o-line that is solid all-around, aside from the right tackle spot. Rookie Josh Conerly Jr. has accounted for seven penalties and surrendered five sacks, earning him the ninth-worst Pro Football Focus grade among all tackles (47.4). The Chiefs would be smart to take advantage of this by lining up Chris Jones on the B-gap throughout the game, giving George Karlaftis and Charles Omenihu constant one-on-one reps against the struggling rookie.
This Chiefs secondary has been lights out all season, as the cornerback trio of Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, and Nohl Williams each allow below a 60% completion percentage and under seven yards per target. As the Commanders' top receivers return from injury in Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel, the Chiefs will have to game-plan accordingly. Samuel is physical and a great tackle breaker, who offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury loves to use in pre-snap motions, end arounds, and screen plays, while McLaurin is a pristine route runner, capable of getting open under any coverage.
The Commanders have weapons on offense, and I didn’t even mention veteran tight end Zach Ertz, who leads Washington with four receiving TDs. While they would no doubt pose several issues had Daniels been starting, Mariota is more than capable of running an offense and being effective. This game will be all about the Chiefs executing in the red zone on both ends and limiting the mental miscues.
How Can the Chiefs Beat the Commanders?
- Feed Rice and Kelce over the middle of the field
- Bring the heat on Mariota with exotic blitzes and coverages
- Win the turnover battle