The Kansas City Chiefs' bye week is finally over, as their attention is officially on Sunday's clash with the rival Denver Broncos. Coming off a bye and a heartbreaking loss to the Buffalo Bills, the Chiefs face yet another must-win game in Week 11, as a 5-4 record is hurting their odds of winning a 10th consecutive AFC West division title.
Whether you believe this Chiefs team is better than its record, it’s now November, and the losses are piling up for Kansas City. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has had a ton of success against the Broncos throughout his career; however, this game may be the biggest matchup yet.
Chiefs Offense vs. Broncos Defense
The Chiefs' success against this vaunted Broncos defense all starts up front with the big fellas. Mahomes has been sacked 10 times in the last four games, which had a direct correlation to him playing perhaps his worst game of the year versus the Bills. Mahomes’ timing was sped up, his feet became choppy, and his command of the offense plummeted.
Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is a really sharp guy who does a great job of scheming up various pass-rushing concepts that have guys coming from all over the field. Denver’s top three sack getters are edges Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper, with Zach Allen attacking from the inside. The trio has combined for 23 sacks and is seemingly unblockable when on the field together. However, there are cracks in this defense that the Chiefs can exploit.
The Chiefs' offense and Mahomes in particular have been at their best when Mahomes throws it within 2.5 seconds of the snap. With the Broncos pacing the NFL with 46 sacks so far, I expect a game plan from head coach Andy Reid with a lot of pre-snap motion to set up quick throws for Mahomes to alleviate the effect of this Denver front four. This means a heavy dosage of Rashee Rice in this game, and a fair amount of Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Running back Isiah Pacheco is likely to miss his second straight game due to an MCL sprain. If the game against Buffalo is any indication of what we can expect in this game, the running back room of Kareem Hunt, Brashard Smith, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire will have little to no impact for the Chiefs. Denver ranks fourth in the league, allowing just 91.2 rush yards per game, so the Chiefs might be smart to attack with a pass-heavy focus.
In terms of the back seven for Denver, a couple of key injuries could prove fatal for the Broncos. Linebacker Alex Singleton will not play in this game after revealing on Monday that he had surgery for testicular cancer. Singleton is a massive loss for Denver as he leads the team in both snaps and tackles as the mic linebacker. Veterans Dre Greenlaw and Justin Strand will each do their parts to fill the void, but the Broncos are seemingly down their starting signal-caller on defense.
Pat Surtain, who is widely regarded as the best cover corner in the NFL, also projects to miss his second straight game with a pectoral injury, leaving coverage duties in the hands of Riley Moss, Kris Abrams-Draine, and Jahdae Barron. While the rookie Barron is young, he is an exceptionally talented first-round pick. Moss, on the other hand, has been a weak spot this year, giving up 454 yards in coverage, while Abrams-Draine has allowed an astoundingly bad 90.9% completion rate when targeted. If the Chiefs can get the quick game going and force the Broncos to back off a little bit, then receivers like Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy can eat up some yardage against these corners, minus Surtain.
As I said before, success on offense for the Chiefs all comes down to the big guys up front earning their paychecks. The return of Simmons cannot be overstated, and Andy Reid, coming off a bye week, holds a 22-4 record (per Fox Sports) across his illustrious career.
Chiefs Defense vs. Broncos Offense
Ranked middle of the pack in almost every offensive category, the Broncos' offense has been stuck in the mud the last two weeks, combining for just 28 points and 15 punts. HC Sean Payton is in his third year in Denver and has shown immense trust in his young QB Bo Nix, and while the record says otherwise, perhaps that trust has been misplaced.
Nix does not have the biggest or most accurate arm in the world, and his throwing mechanics can go from good to horrendous on any given play. On the season, Nix averages just 6.1 yards per pass attempt and has struggled mightily when defenses do not blitz and leave seven guys to cover the field. This tells me that Nix does not go through his progressions all that well and will look to bail out of the pocket and scramble rather than trust his protection (which has given up a league-low 10 sacks). This game provides the Chiefs with a massive advantage at the quarterback position.
Leading the rushing attack for Denver is journeyman J.K. Dobbins, who is a question mark whether he’ll play or not after sustaining a foot injury last week. If he does play, Dobbins has been very effective on the ground, rushing for five yards per carry on over 15 attempts per game. R.J. Harvey backs up Dobbins and is a significant threat out of the backfield in the passing game, with four receiving TDs this season. The Broncos love to utilize both backs in the red zone, sometimes on the field at the same time.
The Chiefs, despite the lack of personnel, continue to surprise me with how stout they are against the run, ranking 12th in yards allowed, and never giving up the big play on the ground.
Pass-rush has been hard to come by for Kansas City, and it's something that will continue to plague this team for the rest of the season. It projects to be no different in this game, as Denver’s offensive line is a premier unit, led by the bookend tackles, Garett Bolles and Mike McGlinchey. Defensive tackle Chris Jones has shown signs of slowing down in his age-31 season, and George Karlaftis, while good, is nowhere near the talent of a number-one guy. The rest of the Chiefs' D-line unit is middling at best and should focus more on containing Nix on scrambles and designed QB runs than inevitably losing battles in one-on-one pass-rush situations.
One of the bigger advantages the Broncos have over the Chiefs is the size of their top two receivers. Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin are 6’4” and 6’3” respectively and have combined for over 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns, basically half of Nix’s passing production. Sutton is one of the top receivers in this league and has given the Chiefs problems over the years due to his talent and overwhelming size at the catch point. Franklin was a teammate of Nix’s in their time at Oregon. The two have a fantastic mindmeld connection, specifically in the end zone and on broken plays.
Defensive backs Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson have played lockdown at the corner position all year, and while I expect each of them to be draped all over the Broncos' pass-catchers in this game, don’t be surprised if you're scratching your head when Sutton or Franklin win a couple of 50-50 balls simply due to boxing out the smaller corners.
At the end of the day, while the Broncos have a solid o-line, some nice weapons, and an elite defense, one team has Mahomes at QB, and the other doesn’t even come close. That will be the difference in this game.
How can the Chiefs beat the Broncos?
- Patrick Mahomes thoroughly outplays Bo Nix
- The Chiefs' offensive line stands strong against Denver’s historic pass-rush
- Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo takes advantage of an inexperienced QB
- Win the turnover battle