Chiefs vs. Bills Opening Odds Overrating One Key Factor for Buffalo
By Joe Summers
The Chiefs square off with the Bills in the marquee matchup of Week 11 on Sunday afternoon, and oddsmakers have once again disrespected Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, Travis Kelce, and Steve Spagnuolo's defense.
Kansas City looked out of sorts against Denver in Week 10 but still escaped with a victory. No matter what, this team always comes through in the end. They're a complete roster whose only real hole appears to be at left tackle.
That's certainly an issue, yet there's no reason that Mahomes and the Chiefs should be underdogs for the second time this season, even if the contest is in Buffalo.
Chiefs vs. Bills Opening Odds Disrespect Patrick Mahomes Yet Again
The Chiefs are currently 2.5-point underdogs to the Bills in what is the most-anticipated game of the year. Same line as in last year's playoffs.
— Matt Verderame (@MattVerderame) November 11, 2024
DraftKings Sportsbook has the Chiefs as 2.5-point underdogs and +114 on the moneyline ($10 to win $11.40) with a total set at 45.5.
The Bills are a great team at 8-2. Josh Allen has a legitimate chance to win his first NFL MVP award. Even still, this line is completely ridiculous. Kansas City just went into Buffalo to win in the AFC Divisional Round and would've won in the regular season in 2023 if not for Kadarius Toney's ill-fated offsides penalty.
Do you really think Mahomes is going to have two "bad" games in a row?
Mahomes is 11-1-1 as an underdog ATS and 10-3 straight up https://t.co/aqR6JbOnb4
— Cody Tapp (@codybtapp) November 11, 2024
The Bills have beaten up on bad teams in recent weeks. They're 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games, though they faced the Colts, Dolphins, Seahawks, Titans, and Jets. Buffalo's two losses this year came to the Texans and Ravens, who happen to be the best teams they've played.
Allen is an excellent QB, though the Bills' roster deficiencies put them at a disadvantage against the truly elite teams in the league. The Chiefs, meanwhile, raise their level of play against the best competition.
Add in that Kansas City could essentially wrap up the No. 1 seed with a win, and you have a recipe pointing to a Chiefs win. They're 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games, including the postseason, and their performances as road underdogs are somehow even better.
The Chiefs are 16-1-1 ATS and 15-3 outright as road underdogs dating back to 2016.
— Joe Summers (@IAmJoeSummers) November 12, 2024
Patrick Mahomes' underdog spread stats are wild, but this one predates him. Andy Reid just doesn't lose these.
It's the biggest game of the season for both teams. A loss would put the Bills just a half-game back of the Chiefs for the AFC's top seed. Given the remaining schedule for both squads, it's a monumental matchup.
Smart money will be on Mahomes, Reid, and Kansas City to dig deep and find a way to emerge victorious. Perhaps they won't, but everyone should've learned by now to stop betting against the Chiefs in this specific situation.
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.