Don’t expect KC Chiefs to draft in first round of 2020 NFL Draft

The 2020 NFL Draft is on Thursday and while the KC Chiefs currently hold the final pick in the first round, fans shouldn’t expect them to stay in the first round.

It’s been nearly three years since we last saw the Kansas City Chiefs draft in the first round. Back then, the Chiefs paid a king’s ransom to vault all the way from the end of the first to pick number ten to select Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The move left Kansas City without a first rounder the following year and the Chiefs used a first rounder last year to acquire defensive end Frank Clark.

For Chiefs fans, this has been (mostly) two offseasons without the excitement other fanbases get from the draft process. They have had a number of day two picks during this stretch, but it doesn’t quite compare to the hope we bestow on our first round selection.

With the draft now only a few days away, many around the country are wondering how things will shake out for Kansas City at 32. Will they go for a position of need like running back or cornerback? What about lesser needs like linebacker or offensive line? Will some star player tumble down the draft boards leaving everyone wondering how the Chiefs got him?

As much excitement as these questions can bring, Chiefs fans need to brace themselves for a much less exciting outcome. For the third straight year, the Kansas City Chiefs will most likely not be making a selection in the first round.

There are a lot of reasons that this is likely the case, but let’s start with the biggest reason:

The Chiefs don’t have a lot of draft picks.

As it sits, Kansas City only has five picks in the draft. In the past two years when the Chiefs had no first round picks, they made up for it with multiple second round picks and a solid amount of later picks.

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This was important because Kansas City loves moving up on day two to grab players they like. In the past three years, we’ve watched the Chiefs move up to select Kareem Hunt, Breeland Speaks, and Mecole Hardman. This is an important part of the Kansas City strategy: Watch players slide past where they are valued and then jump past teams who are interested in them.

In 2017, the Denver Broncos were rumored to be interested in Kareem Hunt and when Kansas City saw the running back begin to fall, they got aggressive to move up and get him. The Chiefs did something similar last year with Hardman when they got word the New York Jets were interested in drafting the speedy receiver.

This is important because it allows the Chiefs to go get the players they actually like as opposed to sitting back and waiting to see their options. With only five picks, the Chiefs basically have no ability to do this unless they want to begin using picks from next year.

If the Chiefs move back and acquire another third or even fourth pick, they’ll be free to move around how they deem necessary the rest of the way.

Another thing to consider about this draft is the makeup of players.

This draft isn’t viewed as one with a high number of first round worthy players. Instead there’s only about 15 followed by a large number of players who are viewed as day two players.

This reminds me of the 2016 draft. Back then the Chiefs sat at pick 28 and, according to rumors, were interested in trading up to acquire quarterback Paxton Lynch. In the end they “lost” out to Denver and not seeing any players they loved, decided to trade out into the early part of the second round.

That second round pick ended up being Chris Jones. Of course we all know how that turned out, as Jones came to be one of the steals of the draft and has been a star for multiple years. I fully expect that the Chiefs have a few players in mind they’d like to draft at 32.

Guys like Patrick Queen, A.J. Terrell, and Cesar Ruiz might all be players the Chiefs deem worthy of a first round selection. If those players are gone, the Chiefs will most likely choose to move back, targeting early second round players like Grant Delpit, Jonathon Taylor, or Zack Baun.

The Kansas City Chiefs are in the most uncertain draft position they’ve been in years. Sitting at the very end of the first, the team is low on draft capital and there is a feeling of uncertainty as the COVID-19 has cut many of the usual parts of the draft process like pro-days and visits.

There’s also the confusion around what will happen with other players like Chris Jones and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, who could be traded for picks. With all this uncertainty, it’s impossible to know what the Chiefs will end up doing over this weekend.

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Based on the draft field and past history, for the third straight year, don’t expect the KC Chiefs to be drafting in the first round.

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