Kansas City Royals: 2020 rotation prediction pre-Spring Training

5 of 5

Jorge Lopez #28 of the Kansas City Royals (Photo by Sam Wasson/Getty Images) /

Jorge Lopez/Foster Griffin/Chance Adams/Stephen Woods Jr

The fifth and final spot of the rotation is up for grabs between four different pitchers.

Jorge Lopez has been frustrating as a starting pitcher on the Royals roster the last two seasons. As a starter, he has put together some gems in his starts only to find himself getting knocked out in a big inning.

His struggles stem from his inability to command his pitches consistently leaving hittable offerings out over the plate when he gets behind in the count. One could speculate his struggles could from fatigue or lack of focus.

Lopez was able to produce better numbers out of the bullpen in 2019 as opposed to his starting numbers. He possesses a plus curveball and enough velocity on his fastball to be effective. Lopez still possesses potential and is out of minor league options so the Royals have to find a way to retain him on the roster either as the fifth starter or a long reliever.

Foster Griffin is someone who could surprise people this spring and find his way into the rotation. He needs to add velocity to his fastball and figure out his command, but it’s definitely possible for him to be effective in a major league rotation.

Chance Adams possesses a four-pitch arsenal each rating at least league average with his slider offering plus potential. Adams’ stats from 2019 were significantly inflated due to a .395 BABIP and 2.49 HR/9.

Adams showed some potential in 2017 producing a 2.89 ERA (3.76 FIP), 8.04 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 in 115.1 innings at AAA for the New York Yankees. His numbers in the MLB have been unsightly. His WHIP during his MLB appearance has been above 1.50 and his HR/FB percentage has been above 20%.

Adams isn’t as bad a pitcher as his MLB numbers suggest. He hasn’t been able to find his career groundball rate of +40% in the majors (30.7% in 2019 and 38.5% in 2018). He was able to increase his swing strike percentage to 7.7% in 2019 compared to 4.6% in 2018. Adams kept his hard-hit percentage around 30% but needs to get hitters to swing at more of his pitches outside of the zone.

If Adams is able to refine his command, he could win the fifth starter role for the 2020 season. His stuff isn’t going to blow hitters away, but he can be productive with the right mix and location. With one remaining minor league option, Adams is potentially another arm likely to start out 2020 in AAA.

Stephen Woods Jr is a 2019 Rule 5 draft pick from a loaded Tampa Bay farm system. Woods needs to make the roster out of spring training and remain on the MLB roster for the Royals to retain him. With the addition of a 26th man to MLB rosters in 2020, there is a chance if the Royals believe in his talent, he will remain on the roster all season long.

Woods throws a four-pitch mix of a 91-95 mph fastball, 75-78 mph curveball, 83-85 mph change-up, and 84-88 mph slider/cutter. Watching video on Woods shows he has an easy repeatable delivery.

More from KC Kingdom

Each of his pitches look similar out of the same overhand arm slot. The spin axis on his breaking stuff from this arm slot causes problems for hitters identifying which pitch he’s throwing. His curveball has nice depth and change of pace speed. He gets on top of the ball and doesn’t overthrow giving him the ability to consistently command the ball low in the zone.

Woods will be an intriguing arm to monitor during Spring Training. If he’s able to consistently throw strikes and gets his fastball velocity up to 95 mph consistently then there is a possibility he makes the roster as a potential spot starter/long reliever.

Conclusion

Brad Keller, Danny Duffy, Mike Montgomery, and Jakob Junis are locks for the 2020 starting rotation.

Spring Training performances will decide who takes over the fifth spot in the rotation. I’m leaning strongly toward Foster Griffin as winning the fifth spot, but Jorge Lopez, Chance Adams, and Stephen Woods Jr each have the ability to make the roster out of spring training if they perform consistently in Spring Training. Woods Jr possesses the most potential as a fifth starter, but hasn’t pitched above A+ ball.

Pitching prospect non-roster staring pitchers Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, and Kris Bubic have all been invited to Spring training this year. It is very unlikely any of these pitching prospects will break camp with the major league squad.

Four Pitchers Due for Bounce Back Season in 2020. dark. Next

Singer still needs time to find more confidence and command in his change-up. Kowar needs to develop his breaking ball offerings. Lynch will need to prove he is able to put together a full season of health and consistency.

Finally, Bubic will need to continue to develop the command of off-speed offerings. Singer and Kowar are the closest to breaking onto the roster and may find themselves being June call-ups.

Home/Kansas City Royals