KC Royals: How soon could fans see Bobby Witt Jr in big leagues?

In the 2019 entry draft, the Kansas City Royals selected Bobby Witt Jr with the second overall pick. Prior to the draft, Witt displayed a set of tools that may make him one of the best shortstop prospects to be drafted since 1987.

As the top prospect in the Kansas City Royals system, when will we see Bobby Witt Jr. in the major leagues? The hype surrounding the shortstop prospect is enormous.

Prior to the 2019 draft, Jim Callis at mlb.com stated,

"“There’s no question that Witt is the best shortstop prospect in a 2019 Draft full of first-round candidates at the position. He also compares favorably to the best since MLB switched to a single unified Draft in 1987. We surveyed several veteran scouts, and the consensus was that only one shortstop in the last 32 years ranks ahead of Witt.”"

Callis went on to claim the only shortstop prospect ahead of Witt historically is Alex Rodriguez.

The mlb.com draft profile on Bobby Witt Jr states:

"“A rare potential five-tool shortstop, Witt didn’t always make consistent contact on the showcase circuit last summer but scouts aren’t worried about his bat. The right-handed hitter shows good barrel control and some willingness to use the entire field, so he could hit for average if he modifies his aggressive approach. His raw power and speed are both plus tools, which, combined with his baserunning instincts, could make him a 20-20 player. Witt covers plenty of ground at shortstop, has quick hands and possesses the arm strength to make all the necessary throws — as well as pump mid-90s fastballs from the mound. His love for the game is evident, and scouts praise his makeup as much as his physical ability.”"

With great hype comes a great deal of pressure to perform. Bobby Witt Jr has been on the showcase circuit for high school prospects since 2016, where he impressed scouts for three years prior to the 2019 draft with his off the field make-up and stunning talent on the field.

2019 Stats (Rookie Arizona League)

.262/.317/.354, 2 2B, 5 3B, 1 HR, 13 BB, 35 K, 9/10 SB in 164 at-bats

The term “five-tool” player gets misused a lot in regards to writing about prospects. In order to qualify as a “five-tool” player you need to have scouting grades of 60 or above on each of your tools (hit, power, base-running, fielding, and arm). Witt Jr nearly meets the criteria, but has consensus scouting reports on his hit tool being below the 60-grade.

Watching video and reading scouting reports on Witt Jr, you can tell he is an outstanding athlete. He has good hands and footwork in the field, a strong arm (hits 91 mph pitching), speed and instincts to run the bases, with good plate discipline, and uses a smooth swing with excellent hip rotation to generate plus power.

There are some mechanical issues with Witt’s swing as he drops his back shoulder on occasion and this results in weak fly ball contact. I believe he will correct this issue during his progression in the minors. Witt will need to add some muscle weight over the next few years to tap into his power potential. This again is something he will be able to address in his professional regiment.

Expectations:

The Kansas City Royals have shown in the past that they are aggressive in challenging their top prospects after their draft year. I expect Witt to start 2020 at A Lexington with a chance to move up to A+ Wilmington mid-season.

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If everything goes well in 2020, Witt Jr will start 2021 in A+ Wilmington and move up to AA Northwest Arkansas (possibly starting and going full season at AA). Once again if everything goes well, Witt Jr will start 2022 in AA Northwest Arkansas and end in AAA Omaha with a small chance to break onto the Royals roster in September if his performance warrants the move.

In 2023, the Royals fanbase should expect to see Witt Jr penciled into the Royals starting line-up either right out of spring training or by June at the latest (service clock).

With Witt Jr’s athleticism (range and reaction), smooth footwork, good hands, and strong arm, he could be plus defender with the ability to stick at shortstop. The plate discipline tool is there for him to be consistently above an 8% walk rate and below a 20% strikeout rate. A conservative projection on his hit tool makes him a .260 average hitter.

If Witt Jr is able to address the flaws in his swing mechanics he could excel past those estimates and hit regularly for a .280 average. Witt Jr has the raw power to hit +27 HRs a year if he’s able to add muscle to his frame. A more conservative projection on his power puts him into the 19-22 HRs per year. Witt Jr’s instincts on the base-paths, quickness, and straight-line speed suggests he could steal 20+ bases a year with the chance for more early in his career.

Overall Bobby Witt Jr looks every bit the part of being one of the best prospects in Royals history at a premium position and the fanbase should expect to see him as a regular on the field in 2023. If the Witt’s performance is out of the world he may push the Royals hand and force his way onto the major league roster in 2022.

The expectation of Witt on the major league roster in 2022 is a bit aggressive and a lot of things need to go right as well as wrong on the major league roster (injury or inability to sign Adalberto Mondesi to long-term contract – Free Agent after 2023).

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Witt should be in the discussion for one of the top prospects each year he is in the minors for the next few years and there may be some prospect fatigue as a result. Witt is still very young (20-years-old next June) and he could take some seasoning to reach his peak.

Either way the Kansas City Royals should be proud to have such a promising prospect in their system.

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