Kansas City Chiefs: Offensive player stat predictions for 2019 season

KANSAS CITY, MO - JANUARY 20: The Kansas City Chiefs celebrate in the end zone after running back Damien Williams (26) 23-yard touchdown reception with 7:45 left in the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship Game game between the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs on January 20, 2019 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MO - JANUARY 20: The Kansas City Chiefs celebrate in the end zone after running back Damien Williams (26) 23-yard touchdown reception with 7:45 left in the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship Game game between the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs on January 20, 2019 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman (17) (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman (17) (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

Group 2: Wide Receivers

Starter #3: Mecole Hardman 

Projected Stat Line: 46 receptions, 463 yards, 4 touchdowns

There was a battle in my mind here on who to put as the third starter. Names like Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle were the main contenders for this spot, but I ultimately went with Mecole Hardman here. That choice was mostly attributed to his skill set and speed, which Andy Reid is going to utilize in his rookie season.

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What I did for Hardman’s projection here was fun and out of the box. I took the numbers from Chris Conley, last year’s third wide receiver, and crossed them with the numbers from Tyreek Hill’s rookie year.

If you remember, Hill came into the league having only played running back. His route running needed polished (much like Hardman), but Andy Reid still found a way to get him onto the field. Hill had 61 catches as a rookie, and Reid will try to utilize Hardman in a similar fashion.

Hardman projects as a Hill type player, as his blazing speed should terrify defenses. Even though Hardman’s route runner could use improvement, he has the advantage over a rookie Hill as he actually played receiver in college. That bodes well for him entering year one of his career.

MISC.

This is where things get interesting. Factoring in all the receiving yards from Hill, Watkins, Kelce, and all other positions that aren’t receivers adds up to 4,629 passing yards. That meant Mahomes threw roughly 468 yards to other receivers last year, with 288 of those going to Demarcus Robinson.

Robinson should have a similar year, simply because the Chiefs backup tight end position is almost non-existent. That means when Kelce needs a break, the Chiefs could just go four or five wide instead of using a backup tight end.

Robinson isn’t the only player who could catch a few passes in 2019. Expect Gehrig Dieter and Byron Pringle to get the occasional snap here and there next season as well. There won’t be an exact prediction total here, so I don’t ruin Mahomes’ projection slide later on, but expect this Chiefs group to be a productive one next season.