KC Chiefs: It won’t take much for Patrick Mahomes to regress in 2019

The KC Chiefs found their franchise quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, who won the MVP in the 2018 season. That being said, it’ll be tough for Mahomes to have a better season than he did in 2018.

When the Kansas City Chiefs traded Alex Smith to the Washington Redskins after the 2017 season concluded, it marked the end of one era and the beginning of another. Chiefs fans were thankful for all Smith had done for the organization, but it was time to move on with a new quarterback and Patrick Mahomes was that quarterback.

The Chiefs opted to trade up to the tenth spot in the 2017 NFL Draft to take Mahomes, so they clearly saw him as their future. Having him stroll the sidelines as a rookie and learn from Smith was a wise decision, as we saw what the end result was from Mahomes this past season.

Mahomes wowed everyone to the tune of 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns during his first full season as a starter in the NFL. Nobody was expecting that, not even the biggest Kansas City Chiefs fans out there.

With all of that in mind, it’s not going to take much at all for 2019 to be considered a regression for Mahomes. The guy threw for over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns and won MVP during his first full year as an NFL quarterback! An encore performance of that is going to be tough to ask for and anything less than 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns will be considered a regression, as unfair as that might be.

When discussing this with Chiefs fans, most seem to think Mahomes will build on that 5,097 yard campaign, but the harsh reality is that passing for 5,000 yards in a single season isn’t as easy as it might seem. In fact, it’s only been accomplished 11 times in the NFL’s storied history.

Mahomes is included in those 11 times with the other ten times coming from:

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• Drew Brees (x 5)
• Peyton Manning
• Tom Brady
• Ben Roethlisberger
• Dan Marino
• Matthew Stafford

It’s crazy to see Marino make that list considering he played a long time ago, but that just shows how ahead of his time he was for the sport. He did things in the 1980s that quarterbacks now do on a regular basis because they have the rules more catered to them than Marino did.

Brees is the only one on the list to have thrown for 5,000 yards in a single season on multiple occasions, meaning it is possible for someone to do so. Mahomes very well could throw for 5,000+ yards again in 2019, but if history is any indication, it’s no easy feat.

KC Chiefs fans expect big things from Patrick Mahomes in 2019, but the most important thing is that the team makes it to and wins the freaking Super Bowl this season. Mahomes doesn’t have to be MVP caliber for that to happen, as long as the defense steps its game up from a season ago.

While Mahomes is still going to be a great quarterback in 2019, the chances of him replicating his prestigious numbers from 2018 aren’t likely. That would then technically make his 2019 season a “regression” even if it doesn’t necessarily feel that way to fans.

Even if Mahomes throws for, say 5,034 yards and 47 touchdowns, that’d still be a regression from his 2018 stats. BUT, if the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, no one will really care about a “regression”, right Chiefs fans?