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Kansas City Royals: How Will Chris Young Handle Blue Jays Offense

By Alec Tilson

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The Kansas City Royals take on the Toronto Blue Jays today with a 2-1 series lead in the ALCS.

The big fella Chris Young takes the mound as the KC Royals Game Four starter today, and he provides an intriguing matchup against the dangerous Toronto offense.

Normally 6-foot 10-inch, 255-pound pitchers are power pitchers. They’re throwing hard; they’re throwing downhill, and they can throw a ton of pitches.

Chris Young is the exception. He doesn’t throw hard. He’s not a strikeout pitcher; he’s not even a ground ball pitcher.

He’s a fly ball pitcher who tops out at about 86 or 87 MPH, and he throws a fastball or a slider 95 percent (maybe more) of the time this season, according to FanGraphs.com.

Young gets by on one thing, and that’s deception. He’s long; he hides the ball, and he can make a mid-8os fastball look like 92.

How does that stack up against a potent Blue Jays lineup? It’s kind of scary on the surface.

Young’s 57.9 percent flyball rate easily leads the MLB for pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched. It’s a death-defying number for a pitcher, and how Young pulls it off is a testament to his pitching aptitude.

Fly balls turn into home runs and how Young is successful with that flyball rate is impressive.

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He’s a thinking man’s pitcher. He’s made a living striking out 7.22 per nine innings and inducing just 26.4 percent of ground balls. Most of the time you’re bagging groceries at that point.

Young is a Sabermetrics anomaly. In fact, according to FanGraphs, Young is pitching way above his head this season. His 3.06 ERA has somehow held up in the face of a 5.33 xFIP (a fielding-independent, expected ERA measure).

If you asked a computer if Young’s formula should be as effective as it’s been this season, the computer would say no. Young has a 7.7 percent home run-to-flyball ratio this season.

Young has a 7.7 percent home run-to-flyball ratio this season.

Less than eight percent of his ridiculously-high rate of fly balls are leaving the park. For comparison, 17.6 percent of James Shields‘ flyballs left the park this season – and he pitched in Petco Park half the time.

But luckily for the Royals, this game is played on the field. Young is crafty right-hander who continues to refute everything we know about projecting a pitcher.

If Young can limit walks (or even eliminate walks), he can tame a Blue Jays lineup that will likely be swinging for the fences.

If Young can limit walks, allow his defense to help him, and live with the one, two or even three solo home runs, he will have done his job as the Royals Game 4 starter.

It’s a lot to ask, but this is a savvy veteran, a competitor and a student of the game. He gives you a chance to win most times he takes the mound, so let’s just hope tomorrow is another one of those vintage Chris Young starts: deceptive and frustrating for opposing hitters.

How do you think Chris Young will fare today for the Kansas City Royals?

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