KC Chiefs: Harvard Projects Chiefs To Make Playoffs

The KC Chiefs barely missed out on the playoffs last year after going 9-7. With a new offense and the same electric defense in tact for 2015, the chances of the Kansas City Chiefs making it into this year’s postseason is much greater.

Call your bookie (or text your bookie, or however your sports bets are placed these days). There’s some smart students at Harvard University who calculated 2015 NFL playoff odds using a sort of in-house formula, and it likes the KC Chiefs.

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The Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective (HSAC) gives the Chiefs a 66 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to an article by Kurt Bullard, presumably a member of the student-run group at Harvard.

Only three teams have better odds of making the playoffs than the Chiefs, according to the article: Seattle, Green Bay, and Miami. Judging by what the Chiefs did to the Dolphins last season down in Miami, a 34-15 display of absolute ownership, I’ll take our chances against Miami, even if they did add Ndamukong Suh.

From the HSAC article, here’s the results of their findings:

(Source: Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective)

The AFC West looks like a two-horse race between the Chiefs and Denver Broncos. The Chargers are middle-of-the-pack with a 33 percent chance and the Raiders are dead-last with a 1 percent shot.

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Further, the formula used by the Harvard group does not account for the age of a team:

"This model does not account for aging, but I make the assumption that in aggregating these AV totals, the positive and negative effects of aging on an individual will, for a team, net out to around zero. So this model favors aging teams and may hinder up-and-coming teams."

That probably bodes even better for the Chiefs, who will count on a handful of first, second and third-year players to play a significant role this upcoming season. Dee Ford, Philip Gaines, Eric Kush, Eric Fisher, De’Anthony Thomas, Travis Kelce and Marcus Peters are among the handful of guys who are looking to have an impact on the 2015 Chiefs.

It’s worth remembering, though, these are just playoff odds and not necessarily Super Bowl winner odds.

According to VegasInsider.com, the Chiefs have the 14th-best odds of winning 2015 Super Bowl L at 40/1. I’m not a better, but if I had $100 to put on the Chiefs, I’d find someone to take that wager for me.

The Denver Broncos are currently 13/1 odds, while the Chargers are also 40/1. It’s all a crap shoot at this point in the offseason, but I think it’s safe to say there’s some value on the Chiefs right now in Vegas.

It’s a slow news day for the Chiefs guys, what can I say?

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