KC Royals: Alex Gordon Should Not Get Extension

Alex Gordon wants to finish his career with the Kansas City Royals and is in the final year of his contract. The two-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner in left field would like a contract extension; but with the season set to begin in two weeks, the team has not opened contract negotiations according to Kansas City Star reporter Sam Mellinger.

KC Royals general manager Dayton Moore is making the right move.

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Alex Gordon is not only the Kansas City Royals best position player, he’s also the face of the franchise.

Though 31-years-old, Alex Gordon keeps himself in phenomenal shape. He lifts like a fiend. His disciplined diet is the stuff of legend inside the Royals clubhouse. He’s a guy that deserves his success.

Despite all of the above being true, the KC Royals are still correct in not offering Alex Gordon a contract extension.

The problem is that nasty thing known as the aging curve. Alex Gordon will be 32 next season and what makes him a star is his defense. Aging curves show that defense peaks earlier than the rest of a position player’s game.

A casual look at Gordon’s defensive value on fangraphs.com seems to belie that notion. Alex Gordon posted a career high in defensive value at age 30 in 2014. Not only did Gordon have an Ultimate Zone Rating/150 of 22.6 in 2014, that was nearly double his next highest UZR/150.

Could it be that Alex Gordon’s obsessive conditioning has turned him into a such a physical freak that the normal aging curve doesn’t apply?

The short answer is no. Alex Gordon’s defensive WAR value spike in 2014 is something of a statistical anomaly. Defensive WAR (and Ultimate Zone Rating) are comparative stats. Gordon’s high defensive value in 2014 is more about the rest of the left fielders in baseball declining rather than Gordon “improving”.

Another factor that distorts Alex Gordon’s defensive aging curve is that he did not play left-field until his age 26 season. Further, that age 26 season was only a short stint in the majors after getting sent to AAA for most of the year to learn a new position.

Gordon’s first full year in left came at age 27 (2011), which aging curves suggest is already past the typical player’s defensive peak.

If Alex Gordon’s conditioning were somehow allowing him to defy the fielding aging curve, you would also expect him to have a similarly odd againg curve at the plate. Yet, Gordon has shown a gradual, yet clear offensive decline, since his age 27 season.

ALEX GORDON CAREER BATTING STATISTICS

Year	Age	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2007	23	601	543	60	134	36	4	15	60	14	4	41	137	.247	.314	.411	.725	90
2008	24	571	493	72	128	35	1	16	59	9	2	66	120	.260	.351	.432	.783	109
2009	25	189	164	28	38	6	0	6	22	5	0	21	43	.232	.324	.378	.703	87
2010	26	281	242	34	52	10	0	8	20	1	5	34	62	.215	.315	.355	.671	84
2011	27	690	611	101	185	45	4	23	87	17	8	67	139	.303	.376	.502	.879	140
2012	28	721	642	93	189	51	5	14	72	10	5	73	140	.294	.368	.455	.822	123
2013 ★	29	700	633	90	168	27	6	20	81	11	3	52	141	.265	.327	.422	.749	103
2014 ★	30	643	563	87	150	34	1	19	74	12	3	65	126	.266	.351	.432	.783	117
8 Yrs	4396	3891	565	1044	244	21	121	475	79	30	419	908	.268	.345	.435	.781	111
162 Game Avg.	690	611	89	164	38	3	19	75	12	5	66	143	.268	.345	.435	.781	111

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/22/2015.

Not only is Gordon more of a “good” rather than “great” offensive player with a career OPS+ of 111 (11% better than an average major-league hitter), he also has shown a fairly regular slide since 2011.

If Gordon can command a 5-year, $80 million deal on the open market like Kansas City Star reporter Sam Mellinger’s sources suggest, there is no way the Royals should meet that price for a declining player.

Yes, the Kansas City Royals do not appear to have good corner outfield prospects waiting in the wings. Yes, Alex Gordon is someone you’d love to have on the team.

But, the bottom line is that a 5-year contract at current market rates will turn into an albatross on the back end. The KC Royals can’t afford to accept that price with other core players progressing through their arbitration years.

Next: Five Key Offensive Players For The KC Royals In 2015

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