KC Royals: Alex Gordon Should Have Been Sent Home

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Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

Anyway, as I was saying, Salvy needed a hit in this situation. As we can see from his numbers, Salvy was wearing down in the postseason, barely hitting over the Mendoza-line.

No matter how you slice it, there was less than a 26% chance of Salvy getting a hit in that situation, and if we’re being realistic, that figure is probably closer to 20-22%.

In light of those numbers, the question becomes, is there a better than 20-22% chance that Crawford can’t get the ball to Posey in time to tag out Gordon at home? If given 10 attempts, from that very spot, in that very situation, could Crawford make that play 8 out of 10 times?

No matter how you slice it, there was less than a 26% chance of Salvy getting a hit in that situation, and if we’re being realistic, that figure is probably closer to 20-22%.

In my opinion, Crawford will make that play the majority of the time, but I don’t think he makes it 80% (or 78%) of the time, thus I’m sending Gordon.

In other words, I believe there to be a greater than 22% chance of something going wrong between the ball leaving Crawford’s hand in shallow left-center field and finding Posey’s glove at home plate. This, of course, is a long-winded way of saying GORDON SCORES! (probably)

Sigh.

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