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KC Royals: Can Alcides Escobar Expect To Win A Gold Glove

By John Viril

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Kansas City Royals spectacular shortstop Alcides Escobar is often referred to as a “Gold Glove caliber” defender. Can Royals fans expect he will win the hardware one day?

Alcides Escobar certainly passes the “eye test” with regular spectacular plays. Last April, ESPN Stats and Information tweeted:

Despite Escobar’s numerous web gems on ESPN, Baltimore Orioles shortstop J.J. Hardy has won the American League Gold Glove the last three seasons.

Digging into both players defensive metrics will quickly show you why Hardy has won recognition over Alcides Escobar. Over the last 4 years Escobar has accumulated 9.1 runs in Ultimate Zone Rating while Hardy has 41.1 over the same period.

Escobar’s DEF (defense rating) on Fangraphs.com tells a more favorable tale for the Royals shortstop with seasons of 16.8, -6.4, 18.0, and 9.0, but J.J. Hardy counters with seasons of 14.7, 19.8, 13.3, and 20.4.

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Defensive runs saved (DRS) also shows Escobar dipping into negative numbers (less runs saved than league average shortstops) in both 2012 and 2014. Escobar saved an outstanding 10 in 2011, -2 in 2012, 4 in 2013, and -4 in 2014.

Meanwhile, Hardy put up regularly excellent DRS numbers over the same four years with 8, 18, 8, and 10.

Those numbers show that Hardy has had the clear edge over Escobar the last four years.

Of course, Hardy turns 33 in August. Meanwhile, Escobar will play next season at age 28. Since the aging curve is more acute for defense than offense according to sabermetric analysts, the younger Escobar could be soon poised to overtake Hardy.

Escobar also has an “awareness” edge that he gained during the 2014 post-season. Baseball writers across America are more aware of Escobar than ever before after the Royals World Series run. Since the BBWA (Baseball Writers of America) elect Gold Glove recipients, you can’t over-estimate the impact of a higher Q rating.

In fact, a gander at the gold glove winners list suggests that the award is given for reputation more than performance. The data shows shortstops typically hit their fielding peak between ages 22 and 24. Yet, the average age for A.L. shortstop gold glove winners is 28.15.

Despite my focus on the Oriole star, the A.L. Gold Glove award isn’t just a baseball deathmatch pitting Alcides Escobar vs. J.J. Hardy. Escobar will also have to stave off rivals like Elvis Andrus and Detroit up-and-comer Jose Iglesias. Both Angels SS Erick Aybar (14.6) and Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez (9.5) also had better DEF ratings than Escobar last season.

The 22-year-old Ramirez could be the biggest threat to Escobar’s Gold Glove aspirations. In a mere 56 games last season, Ramirez put up an impressive UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating pro-rated for 150 games) of 18.9. Alcides Escobar’s best UZR/150 came in 2013, with a 12.1.

While it was a small sample size, and defensive metrics are subject to wild fluctuations in any data set under three seasons, Ramirez debut impressed fans and pundits alike.

Given J.J. Hardy’s established reputation, plus stiff competition, Alcides Escobar is far from certain to ever win a Gold Glove in his Kansas City career.

Next: KC Royals: Bring on 2015

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