Sportsbooks Expect Shockingly Poor Season from Travis Kelce
By Joe Summers
Sportsbooks either believe Travis Kelce is due to take a major step back or don't know how to properly evaluate the Chiefs' future Hall of Fame tight end.
Despite Kelce's career-low in receiving yards sits at 862 from 2014, yet FanDuel Sportsbook has his season-long receiving yards prop set at a shocking 830.5. Even in a relatively poor year that saw him battling injuries, Kelce still finished with 984 yards in only 15 games.
He proved he's still capable of huge production with 355 in four playoff games, so why are oddsmakers discounting Kelce so much?
Travis Kelce Season-Long Receiving Yards Prop
Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop | Sportsbook |
|---|---|
830.5 | FanDuel |
850.5 | Caesars |
900.5 | DraftKings |
FanDuel is the lowest of the group as you can see, though all three sportsbooks represent a significant decline from what Kelce's season-long prop is typically set at. If Kelce plays in only 15 games again, he'd need to average just over 55 yards per contest to hit the over.
He didn't just sign a new contract to become the highest-paid tight end in the NFL to not play, so I anticipate Kelce hitting this over and nearing 1,000 yards once again.
I believe Kelce will see fewer snaps in 2024-25 as the team tries to ensure he's healthy for the postseason, but yards should be easier to come by. Marquise 'Hollywood' Brown and Xavier Worthy's speed can spread out defenses and give Kelce more room to operate underneath, an element that's been missing from Kansas City's passing attack since Tyreek Hill was traded.
If Kelce goes under this prop, he either suffered a significant injury or his play fell off a cliff. He's been a sparkling example of consistency and durability throughout his career and I certainly don't believe he'll magically become bad at football over the course of a few months. Thus, neither possibility is a likely outcome.
These props would make sense if Kelce didn't look like himself in the playoffs. However, he looked as good as ever, instilling confidence that his midseason struggles were merely a blip and not a sign of things to come.
Kelce will eventually deteriorate but the implications of this season are far too important. Expect a fully engaged Chiefs team all year long as they aim for a three-peat, meaning Kelce will be heavily involved and post another strong statistical season.
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.