The Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans are set to battle it off in Week 14, in a game that has massive playoff implications for both sides. The Chiefs sit at 6-6 after squandering their game on Thanksgiving, essentially forcing the Chiefs to win out to give themselves a chance at a playoff birth.
The Texans (7-5) come into Arrowhead Stadium red hot, winners of four straight and the league’s best defense by seemingly every metric. Houston's offense saw a major improvement in terms of efficiency and game control from the return of third-year quarterback C.J. Stroud. The playoffs start Sunday night for the Chiefs, as a loss would put them in a hole, few teams have ever crawled out of.
Texans' Offense Shouldn't Worry Chiefs
This offense for Houston is nothing to ride home about, given the lack of weapons and an offensive line that ranks near the bottom of the league. The Texans score just 21.9 points per game (21st) and don’t really have much of an offensive identity. Stroud is a talented QB, but hasn’t exactly captured the greatness that he showed since his rookie season, scoring just 11 touchdowns in nine games this season.
With injuries to the tight end position, the Texans prefer to run a lot of 11 personnel, meaning three wide receivers and one tight end on the field on most plays. This benefits the Chiefs' defense as they have struggled mightily against TEs this year, and while Dalton Schultz is having a nice season with 552 yards, he is not exactly a guy who threatens downfield or after the catch.
Wide receiver Nico Collins will be Kansas City’s main priority this week as he’s totaled nearly 800 yards and four TDs. Collins is a truck at 6’4”, 220 lbs, and as we saw last week versus the Dallas Cowboys, Chiefs' corners Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson have trouble dealing with bigger-bodied targets. Collins is a fine route-runner for his size, but not at all a technician, excelling more at the catch point with strong hands. Houston has a lot of speed elsewhere at WR with Jayden Higgins, Xavier Hutchinson, and Jaylin Noel, but each guy has been lucky to get more than two or three catches a game, due to inexperience and a lack of growth in understanding how the QB sees the field.
The running game has been a sore spot for Houston all year, ranking 23rd in rushing yards (107.7 per game) and down their starter, Joe Mixon, since training camp. Taking Mixon’s place is former Cleveland Brown Nick Chubb, who is not the player he once was, with just three TDs on 114 carries. Youngster Woody Marks has provided Houston with some offensive juice this season, both in the run game and receiving game, but it’s yet to be determined whether Marks will be able to go this week after missing the majority of Week 13 due to a foot injury.
As I said at the start, this Texans offensive line hasn’t done this team any favors. Aside from right tackle Tytus Howard, who has yet to surrender a sack all season, the big kahunas up front have been dominated at the line of scrimmage.
In essence, this shouldn’t matter as the Chiefs objectively have one of the worst pass rushes in football, despite defensive tackle Chris Jones constantly eating up double teams, allowing for his teammates one-on-one matchups. However, given how weak Houston’s interior O-line is, I think Jones has an excellent game, hopefully prompting the rest of this D-line to follow suit.
Chiefs Will Be Challenged by Texans' Elite Defense
Kansas City’s offense has been one of the more perplexing units in all of football this season. There have been drives and even whole games where they look absolutely unstoppable, and times when it looks like they forgot how to play the sport. Andy Reid is still an excellent, top-level head coach who will have to put a masterful game plan up against defensive-minded HC DeMeco Ryans and all the talent on this Texans defense that ranks first in the league in both points and total yards allowed.
The biggest storyline of this game will be how this battered Chiefs offensive line will perform against a front-four in Houston that is simply tantalizing. Kansas City projects to be without three starters on the OL in this game, in both tackles Josh Simmons and Jawaan Taylor, as well as star right guard Trey Smith. You couldn’t wish for worse timing if you’re the Chiefs, as the edge-rushing duo of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. has combined for a league-leading 21.5 sacks and 127 QB pressures.
The Texans also have quality pieces to fill out that D-line with Sheldon Rankins, Derek Barnett, and Tim Settle. To mitigate this pass-rush as best they can, the Chiefs will have to get the run game going and attack the Texans horizontally, with quick hitters outside, screens, and slants. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes will only have so much time to get the ball out of his hands, so limiting pre-snap penalties and costly mistakes will be paramount.
Reid has been more willing to stick with the run game in recent weeks, and it’s largely worked out on the back of Kareem Hunt. Isiah Pacheco was given just three carries in his return to action last week and should definitely see a heavier workload. I also expect to see a fair amount of two-running back plays with either Hunt or Pacheco alongside rookie Brashard Smith, who has been dangerous in the passing game and with the ball in his hands. Smith’s tackle-breaking skillset could make a huge impact in this game as the Texans' leading tackler, linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, is arguably the hardest-hitting player in the NFL.
With the Chiefs coming off a mini-bye week, the receiving core should be healed up, as Xavier Worthy has been dealing with multiple ailments, and Rashee Rice seemed to have tweaked his knee in the Dallas game. Travis Kelce is still a premier tight end in this league and on pace for yet another 1,000-yard season at age 36. He continues to defy expectations, and in a game like this, where all the chips are pushed into the middle of the table, I expect to see the historic Mahomes-Kelce connection for a few plays throughout this game.
I’ve been advocating for weeks that Tyquan Thornton should get more playing time in this offense because he is the Chiefs' best downfield target and a big-play threat that Mahomes trusts in big moments. But, for whatever reason, the coaching staff sees it differently, and I think to the detriment of this team's offensive capacity.
The Verdict
This is a massive Sunday night matchup in primetime at home for Reid & Co., and while my heart is picking the Chiefs to come through and save their season for another week, my head has a hard time trusting Kansas City's defense and banged-up offensive line to come through when the matchups are not at all in their favor.
Week 14 Score Prediction: Chiefs 23, Texans 24
Chiefs Keys to Success
- Controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football
- Getting timely stops on defense
- A masterful game plan and execution by Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes
- Special teams making a couple of game-altering plays