Unquestionably, the biggest factor in how the Kansas City Chiefs start the 2026 season is the health of Patrick Mahomes. While the expectation appears to be the quarterback starting in Week 1, it is fair to wonder if there will be a level of rust and a need to gain confidence back. Mahomes isn't reliant on his legs, but he is going to need to get comfortable moving in the pocket and taking hits. This is something that Kansas City's schedule has perfectly set up while still allowing the team to get off to a hot start.
Week 1 is clearly going to be a difficult matchup against the Denver Broncos, but the Chiefs do have the benefit of the game being played in Arrowhead. After this, the Chiefs are scheduled to take on the Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, Las Vegas Raiders, and the Los Angeles Chargers. These are three extremely winnable games whose opposing quarterbacks and defensive units are far from scary.
Mahomes should have the first month of the season to ease into the lineup, and the Chiefs still expect to have at least a record of 4-1 or 3-2 with the league's best quarterback back at full strength. It wouldn't be unexpected to see KC run the table in the first four weeks if Mahomes is able to get comfortable throughout the summer. This wouldn't be completely surprising based on the obsessive nature with which the veteran attacks his rehab.
Chiefs early-season schedule offers perfect runway for Patrick Mahomes
The difficult portion of Kansas City's schedule doesn't hit until the end of November, leaving every reason to believe the Chiefs are going to pile up wins early on. Another piece of this that is important is the fact that, other than Denver, none of the defenses that KC faces in the first five weeks of the season are clear threats to shut down Kenneth Walker.
Mahomes should have the perfect schedule to get more comfortable within the offense and gain confidence while also leaning on the run game. The Chiefs simply couldn't have asked for a more fitting schedule, with the team's most difficult game in the first weeks of the season offering the advantage of being played at home.
For Mahomes, there has to be a certain comfort as well in getting a chance to re-establish his past division dominance in the first weeks of the season while playing losing teams around the two division opponents.
A chance to beat both the Chargers and Broncos, while facing the inept trio of the Dolphins, Raiders, and Colts, is the perfect start for Mahomes and should help the quarterback gain early-season confidence.
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