Chiefs Kingdom was given something they haven’t received in quite a while in last week's blowout 37-20 win over the Baltimore Ravens: an offensive performance to remember. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for four touchdowns while wide receiver Xavier Worthy finished with 121 yards from scrimmage. On top of that, the defense was once again superb, forcing Ravens QB Lamar Jackson into two turnovers and making multiple fourth-down stands that all but shut down any chance his team had at mounting a comeback.
It may seem premature to say of a 2-2 team, but it feels like the Chiefs are getting into a bit of a groove heading into a rain-forecasted game against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday night. The Jaguars have bought into his culture and his system under first-year head coach Liam Coen, beginning on a blistering 3-1 start, and won't go down without a fight.
Chiefs Offense vs Jaguars Defense
While the Jags have been able to force nine interceptions on QBs so far this year, here’s the signal-callers they have faced. Bryce Young, Jake Browning, C.J. Stroud, and Mac Jones. No disrespect to any of those guys, but compared to Patrick Mahomes, who has one whole turnover this season, on a dropped ball through the hands of Travis Kelce, they barely play the same sport.
Mahomes is known to have a few throws a year where the ball gets away from him and he tosses a bad pick. If that happens this week, then fine, but here are a few truly wacky stats to ponder before the game. During the Mahomes era, the Chiefs are 48-3 when winning the turnover battle, and 36-8 when tying in giveaways. League average when tying is .500. If you want to get crazy and say that Jacksonville keeps this historic pace up of taking the ball away, and the Chiefs give them multiple extra possessions, the Chiefs with Mahomes are an astounding 25-21 (over .500) when losing the turnover battle. Just food for thought.
The Jaguars have an excellent rushing defense, only allowing 83 yards on the ground per game. In all honesty, I’m not sure that matters much to head coach Andy Reid because, given the current running back personnel, he’s been reluctant to run the ball anyway. The Jags fail to complement that stellar rush defense with a horrendous passing defense. It was bad last year and even worse this year. Jacksonville has just been able to steal possessions, so the overall numbers are skewed.
Hybrid first-rounder Travis Hunter was drafted to be a lockdown corner in Jacksonville, but that’s a lot to ask of a rookie who has basically been relegated to a backup role on both sides of the ball. The Jags possess a trio of complementary linebackers in the aforementioned Devin Lloyd, Foyesade Oluokun, and Dennis Gardeck. These guys are similar to the Chiefs' linebackers in that while they have their flaws in speed and coverage skills, they do not miss tackles. These Jaguar backers hit hard and wrap up quickly, so I don’t foresee much yards after catch ability in this game for guys like Juju Smith-Schuster, Travis Kelce, and anybody out of the backfield.
Worthy’s return cannot be overstated enough. His talent and speed allow the Chiefs to open the playbook up so much and put receivers in favorable positions for their specific skillsets. The Jags may have fast corners in Tyson Campbell and Jourdan Lewis, but they simply don’t match with the likes of Worthy, Tyquan Thornton, or even Hollywood Brown if he gets a clean get-off from the line of scrimmage. Mahomes seems comfortable throwing deep and has seen success with it. I expect that to continue this week,
The biggest question coming into this game will be the status of elite edge rusher Travon Walker. The 24-year-old suffered a wrist injury last week and had surgery on it in a matter of hours. While he missed almost all of this week's practices, Walker is considered day-to-day and is a true game-time decision. He has two sacks this season, and the matchup being on Monday helps.
His co-star Josh Hines-Allen is another QB hunter who will spend the majority of his time versus Jawaan Taylor. Hines-Allen is more of a speed rusher, something that Taylor tends to struggle with. If Walker is out, the Chiefs will be freed up to give Taylor some extra help on the edge with double-teams, chipping, etc. If Walker plays and is matched up on the left side against Josh Simmons, Kansas City will need to deliver quick passes and scheme around the pressure.
Jaguars Offense vs Chiefs Defense
The Jaguars present some unique situations for this Chiefs defense to focus on. Etienne is averaging over six yards per carry with three touchdowns. He is the key to halting this attack from Coen and co. However, the Chiefs' selling out to stop the run could bring forth issues. Brian Thomas Jr. is an excellent wide receiver who had nearly 1,300 yards in his rookie campaign last season. And tight end Brenton Strange is off to a heck of a breakout season as Lawrence’s go-to target.
However, the Thomas-Lawrence connection has been very disconnected as of late, as the pair have completed on a rancid 12 of 32 targets. As K.C.'s outside corner number one, Jaylen Watson will be given the assignment of continuing the dysfunction between Jacksonville’s QB1 and WR1. After two weeks recovering from a shoulder injury, Dyami Brown is slated to return this week, where he racked up eight catches for 99 yards in weeks one and two. Brown brings a very valuable skill set to this team. He can work from anywhere on the field, can run jet sweeps and motions, and has nearly a fully developed route tree. It sounds like the perfect matchup for All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie.
Leo Chenal alleviated some of my concerns about the Chiefs' linebackers in coverage last week when he made a miraculous grab for an interception on a decorated TE in Mark Andrews. Lawrence does not run the ball a smidge, so unlike Jacksonville, the Chiefs will not have to dedicate one or two of their backers as glorified blitzers/spies. This will allow them to roam the middle of the field and contain Strange, especially on third-downs.
Jacksonville has one of the lesser offensive lines the Chiefs will see all season. Walker Little, at left tackle, is about the only guy worth anything in pass protection. Chris Jones has been playing like a man possessed as per usual, and George Karlaftis continues to stuff the stat sheet with three sacks, 10 QB hits, and 18 tackles. Mike Danna will see a return to action after missing every game but the season opener, while rookies Ashton Gillotte and Omarr Norman-Lott (questionable) have worked their way into meaningful rotational roles.
What I want to see, aside from a bevy of sacks from the Chiefs, is for Charles Omenihu to be front and center in it and have a breakout game. Ominehu has yet to record a sack or really any big play of note this season.
How can the Chiefs beat the Jaguars?
- Protect the football
- Stymie Travis Etienne
- Connect on the deep ball