Chiefs Have Big Advantage in Key Matchup That'll Decide Bills Game

The AFC Championship is nearly here as we're roughly 48 hours away from the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Buffalo Bills at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium for the right to go to a third consecutive Super Bowl.

This should be a tightly contested contest that could come down to a few individual matchups. While the Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 earlier this year, these are drastically different teams at this point. Starting cornerback Jaylen Watson and defensive end Charles Omenihu, for example, both didn't even play in that game but should have large roles on Sunday.

Watson's return, in particular, will free up two-time All-Pro Trent McDuffie to handle Bills wideout Khalil Shakir. If McDuffie can slow Buffalos' top receiving threat down, the Chiefs will be in great shape to win this game.

Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie Poised to Shut Bills WR Khalil Shakir Down

In that first matchup, Shakir caught eight of 12 targets for 70 yards, leading all players in receiving yardage. He primarily plays out of the slot, notching 650 yards from that spot this season. 43% of the receptions that Kansas City allowed in 2024 came from the slot, so Shakir theoretically has an edge.

However, Matt Verderame of Sports Illustrated believes that McDuffie will cover Shakir for the majority of the game. That's why Watson's return is so important. The Divisional Round was his first game since Week 7 and in his absence, the Chiefs' secondary was perilously thin. McDuffie was forced to stick outside because of Nazeeh Johnson and Joshua Williams' struggles but if he can slide back to the slot, Shakir won't have the same space to operate.

McDuffie surrendered just an 82.9 passer rating when targeted in coverage, grading as the third-best corner in the NFL at Pro Football Focus. If he smothers Shakir, it's hard to imagine how Josh Allen and the Bills offense can consistently move the ball barring some heroics from the talented quarterback.

Omenihu and Watson's respective presences transform this defense. Even though Kansas City lost the first game, McDuffie's ability to shadow Shakir will change the tides in this one.

As things stand, the Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites with -122 odds on the moneyline, sitting with the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl (+210) at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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