Exactly nine months to the day after Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL on Dec. 14 in a losing effort versus the Los Angeles Chargers, the Kansas City Chiefs are set to host the 2026 season-opener versus the Denver Broncos on Sept 14 in Arrowhead Stadium.
Within hours of sustaining the worst injury of his career, Mahomes was fresh off a plane that touched down in Dallas to repair both the torn ACL and LCL in his left knee. And just hours after the operation, the rehab process began, and Mahomes hasn't missed a day yet.
Shockingly, Mahomes has cleared every checkmark this Summer and not missed a snap of offseason work, whether it be in OTA’s, minicamp, or training camp. The three-time Super Bowl MVP has passed every test with flying colors.
The next step is not just to start in the Broncos game, but to be the same guy he was prior to the injury, if not better. And what’s crazy is that the majority of the football media not only thinks he’ll be out there, but it’s expected of him.
The bigger question, however, is how he will look in his first game and throughout the season. How much will the knee hinder his ability both physically and mentally? And will the assumed offensive upgrades around Mahomes be enough for him to start producing elite numbers once again?
Patrick Mahomes finally in for strong numbers season in 2026, helped by a star running back and available wide receivers
Projecting statistical numbers for any player in any season is tough. In Mahomes's case, despite the years of evidence at hand, it’s hard to know or feel what kind of numbers he’ll end up with in a few months' time. The return of offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy should help, as prior to his departure, Mahomes had averaged well over 4,000 passing yards per season and was a constant threat for 40-plus touchdowns. This is when Andy Reid was also at the top of his game, play-calling-wise.
But when Bieniemy left and Reid’s coaching faltered, along with an aging Travis Kelce and a complete lack of a running game, Mahomes numbers understandably dropped. To the tune that it was a struggle for him to produce even his once-easy benchmark of 4,000 passing yards, and he failed to reach 30 passing touchdowns in each of the past three seasons.
Patrick Mahomes Projected 2026 Statline - 397/595 Passing 4,396 Passing Yards 34 Passing TDs 10 INTs 54 Rushing Attempts 275 Rushing Yards 1 Rushing TD 2 Fumbles Lost
A 66.7 completion percentage is far better than his 2025 career low of 62.7. It’s more in line with Mahomes’ career average, but not quite reaching his peak numbers. For reference, his projected passing yardage and touchdowns would have ranked fourth and tied for second last season, respectively. And his 10 interceptions would be his lowest since 2020 (6), but still a healthy amount and just a couple fewer than each of the past handful of seasons.
Mahomes, before Bieniemy left, had never had a problem accumulating lots of yards. 4,396 through the air should be easy work for him, assuming Kenneth Walker in the run game opens things up downfield and the young receiving duo of Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy stay both healthy and engaged for the duration of the season. 34 passing TDs, believe it or not, would rank just fifth of his nine starting seasons. That’s how good this dude has been.
Projecting Mahomes’ rushing statistics was weird. In some ways, you’d expect a guy of his competitive nature to go all out when he’s on the field and fight for every last yard. Perhaps that's why Andy Reid opted to withhold him from meaningless preseason reps.
54 attempts, or rather, scrambles, would be the second-lowest mark of Mahomes career, and his 5.1 yards per carry would be just a couple of notches lower than his normal scampers. Mahomes has found the end zone at least two times every year he’s started, save for the 2023 season when he did not do it even once. Last year’s high of five is not necessarily what you want from the Chiefs offense, as it proves more of the onus is on him to provide everything. One score from his legs seems reasonable and more than enough when you add his jump in passing TDs.
Justin Fields Projected 2026 Statline - 9/14 Passing 94 Passing Yards 0 Passing TDs 0 INTs 9 Rushing Attempts 65 Rushing Yards 2 Rushing TD 1 Fumble Lost
Garrett Nussmeier's Projected 2026 Statline - N/A
For every other position group during the lead-up to the first game of the season, projecting real, legit numbers for each player is the goal. For the quarterback room, it’s not. Because, god forbid, if Mahomes goes down for any extended period of time, the Chiefs season is likely over. And I don’t project for that, which is why both Justin Fields and Garrett Nussmeier’s numbers are low in Fields case and none when it comes to the third-string rookie.
2026 should be a year where Mahomes and the Chiefs offense get back on track. Both from a purely scoring and yardage perspective, and also from a literal eye test. It can’t look like a slugfest once again on offense. Not with the talent Kansas City has. These numbers for Mahomes may or may not propel him into MVP conversations once again. But more importantly, they need to correlate with more wins, an AFC West title, and a return to the playoffs.
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