Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Total Points Over/Under, 54.5 Points
I missed this pick last week by half a point. Heart-breaking stuff here in the KC Kingdom writers room.
I project this game to be a story of two halves. The game will stay relatively close in the first half, with the Eagles just running unlimited read options and power toss concepts to get to the outside.
Meanwhile, an angry Chiefs’ offense will likely give Tommy Townsend a week off, running the ball just as effectively, but mixing in some of that unstoppable Mahomes-Kelce magic. Half of the over will be cover in the first half.
However, the second half should be a completely one-sided affair. The Chiefs receive the ball to start the second half, which gives them an opportunity to go up by two scores if they are not already.
The Chiefs can go all gas, no brakes in the second half, which eliminates the Eagles’ ability to run the ball. Forcing Hurts to pass the ball will result in some punts and even some turnovers, which gives the Chiefs the opportunity to finish the game.
So the question for me is how many points will the Chiefs score in the second half. I give the Eagles a single touchdown in the second half, either early in the half, because they can stick to the run a bit longer, or at the end of the half, in garbage time. So will the Chiefs score three touchdowns in the second half?
The Chiefs have a 70% touchdown rate in the red zone. With the weakness of the Eagles’ front seven, there is no reason that the Chiefs can not score every time they get on the final 25 yards of the fields.
However, I do struggle to bring myself to give the Chiefs a 100% red zone success rate, especially late in the game when the lead has swelled.
I am taking the under almost exclusively because I think late in the game the Chiefs are going to fail to score a touchdown in the red zone and will settle for a field goal.