The Kansas City Chiefs look to bounce back and we look to cash out!
The Kansas City Chiefs have a losing record for the first time in Mahomes’ tenure as a starter. With arguably the worst defense he has played with since entering the NFL, there are no real questions as to why that is. The Chiefs have quite a bit to figure out over the next 15 weeks if they want to make another deep playoff run and get to their third straight Super Bowl.
Thankfully for them, their next opponent offers little in terms of resistance and will give them a huge confidence boost. This week, the Chiefs get to visit Lincoln Financial Field, home of the also 1-2 Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles are an extremely young team in the beginning phase of a rebuild. Despite an extremely unlikely and almost inspirational Super Bowl win in 2018, the 2010s were not good to the Eagles. Constant injuries, some major changes in the coaching staff, and one of the most confusing roster competitions possible kept the Eagles moving backward where they should have been moving forward.
After a decade of uncertainty, it makes sense that the Eagles would still be suffering the consequences in the early 20s.
The Eagles are not a terrible team, but they are not a team in a place to really be a threat to the reigning AFC champions. However, with how the Chiefs have been playing, this is not a game that can be overlooked yet.
So, as we do in this series, we will examine the game through the lens of the sportsbook. We will examine the lines and predict how they will fall.
Author’s Note: This is not Financial Advice. Bet at your own risk. All odds provided by WynnBET.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Favorable Prop Bets
Anytime Touchdown Scorer – Jalen Hurts (+125) and Travis Kelce (-146)
Did you see what Lamar Jackson was able to do with the Chiefs’ defensive line? Chris Jones is not doing well on the edge and mobile quarterbacks are eating him up. Jalen Hurts is not quite Lamar Jackson, but he is definitely beyond good enough to eat this weekend.
Travis Kelce scoring a touchdown is one of the prop bets I missed last week, which surprised me a bit. With how much pressure the Chargers were able to put on Mahomes (almost exclusively through Lucas Niang), Kelce should have been wide open every play.
Although he did put up good numbers in terms of receiving yards, the Chargers effectively took him away in the red zone and kept him from grabbing a touchdown. That is why Jody Fortson was able to grab one in the third quarter.
However, this linebacker group will absolutely not be able to stop Travis Kelce like the Chargers did last week. The Charger’s linebacking group is allowing 96% completion, which is going to make Travis Kelce a problem.
Even if the Eagles shift a corner to cover him or drop a safety into the box to follow him, Travis Kelce is still likely to be able to make plays. The secondary is allowing a 64% completion rating.
The Eagles gave up two touchdowns to Dalton Schultz last week when playing the Cowboys. Kelce is at least getting one.
Rushing Yards O/U: Jalen Hurts OVER 55.5 (-125)
Bet 125, Win 100, Sum 225
See above comments about Lamar Jackson and Chris Jones. The Cowboys were able to hold Hurts to just under 40 yards, not by stuffing the run and keeping him from making athletic plays, but by scoring so quickly and effectively running the ball, forcing the Eagles to pass the ball. There should be no faith that Kansas City can do that on Sunday.
Rushing Yards O/U: Clyde Edwards-Helaire OVER 59.5 (-125)
Bet 125, Win 100, Sum 225
The Eagles are allowing 3.8 yards per carry. They gave up 160 yards to the Cowboys, 117 to the 49ers, and 124 to Atlanta. This should be another great game for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, especially if he has finally cleaned up the fumbling.
Total Receptions O/U: Devonta Smith Under 4.0 (-115)
Bet 115, Win 100, Sum 215
Smith is grabbing just under 4 receptions per game, which would make the over a tempting bet. However, examining the matchups, I actually do not like Smith to get more than 2 receptions.
The Eagles have injuries at almost every offensive line position. Chris Jones has something to prove in this game. Frank Clark being inactive means that the Chiefs will have Mike Danna and Joshua Kaindoh on the field, who have been more effective the last few weeks than Clark.
If the Chiefs can finally get some success putting pressure on the quarterback, the deep ball will be unavailable to Hurts. Especially with Mathieu moving freely around the defensive backfield.
Smith’s success comes from his deep toolbox of release moves and ability to run an extensive route tree. Up against a defensive back with a higher football IQ than anybody else in the game, Tyrann Mathieu, the undersized rookie is not going to have a good time.