Who should Kansas City Royals select with fourth overall pick?
By Cody Rickman
The Kansas City Royals have the fourth overall draft pick in the upcoming MLB Draft held on June 10th and 11th.
The Kansas City Royals‘ scouting department and front office have the opportunity to select a potential perennial All-Star and, if they are lucky enough, a possible future Hall of Famer.
The fourth overall selection in the MLB amateur draft has the potential to be a franchise-altering pick. The Royals are going to have a difficult decision to make during the 2020 draft that could help the team become a championship contender.
Scouring through the draft history at baseballreference.com shows us the history of how past number four overall picks panned out (KC Kingdom’s Leigh Oleszczak also did an article on this):
- Best player taken: Barry Larkin in 1985 with 70.5 WAR
- Best recently selected: Kyle Schwarber (2014) and Kevin Gausman (2012)
- Royals selections: Christian Colon (2010), Mike Stodolka (2000), and Jeff Austin (1998)
- Notable: Ryan Zimmerman (2005), Kerry Wood (1995), Alex Fernandez (1990), Kevin Brown (1986), Mike Morgan (1978), Dave Winfield (1973), Darrell Porter (1970), Thurman Munson (1968), Jon Matlack (1967) in addition to Barry Larkin all produced over 20 WAR in their career.
- 29.63% chance for a +10 WAR player (16 out of 54: solid regular – possible All-Star)
- 19.23% chance for a +20 WAR player (10 out of 54: good to great player- perennial All-Star)
- 5.77% chance for a Hall of Fame caliber player (3 out of 54: HOF Larkin: 70.5 WAR, HOF Winfield: 64.2 WAR, and Kevin Brown: 67.8 WAR)
What Kansas City Royals fans should expect
The Royals select fourth overall following picks by the Detroit Tigers (1st overall), Baltimore Orioles (2nd overall), and Miami Marlins (3rd overall). According to mlb.com, the top five prospects eligible for the 2020 MLB draft are 1B/OF Spencer Torkelson, 2B/3B Austin Martin, SP Asa Lacy, SP Emerson Hancock, and 2B Nick Gonzales.
I expect Spencer Torkelson and Austin Martin to be unavailable for the Royals when they select at number four overall. Torkelson and Martin have the tools and collegiate track record to ensure they come off the board in the first two picks. The Miami Marlins have quickly rebuilt their farm system after a flurry of trades in 2018 and 2019. Exactly who the Marlins select is a mystery.
The Royals are going to have to decide who they think is the best option amongst the following prospects expected to be available at the fourth overall selection.
- Asa Lacy, LHP Starting Pitcher
- Nick Gonzales, Second Base
- Zac Veen, Outfielder
- Emerson Hancock, RHP Starting Pitcher
Prospects at pick four for Kansas City Royals: Asa Lacy, LHP Starting Pitcher
Asa Lacy is the best available option at the number four pick. In my most recent mock draft, I had this to say about Lacy and his potential future with the Royals:
"Lacy has four above-average pitch offerings with his fastball, slider, and change-up all grading as plus pitches. His 11 to 5 curveball and sinking/fading change-up work well tunneling off of his fastball velocity (92 – 97 mph). His wipeout slider is his best secondary offering and is a strikeout pitch to both left-handed and right-handed batters. He has downhill mechanics and works well through his critical check points. Lacy has slightly above-average control and command, when his release and feel for his arsenal is on, he has the ability to be dominant."
Lacy’s K/9 rates (17.3 (2020), 13.2 (2019), and 11.0 (2018)), in arguably the best college baseball conference (SEC), indicate he has been one of the most dominant pitchers in college baseball. Lacy is the best pitcher available in the draft and he is left-handed. The opportunity to take the best pitcher available in the draft is something the Royals should not pass up.
Lacy is a high ceiling/high floor prospect who has the ability to exceed his projections.