KC Royals: Four pitchers due for bounce back season in 2020

Foster Griffin (Starting Pitcher)

• 2019 AAA stats – 5.23 ERA, 1.515 WHIP, 111 Ks, 64 BBs (3 IBBs and 8 HBP), with a 5.74 FIP in 130.2 innings
• 2019 Dominican Winter League – 2.31 ERA, 1.157 WHIP, 31 Ks, 6 BBs in 23.1 innings
• 2020 Steamer projection – 5.36 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 13 Ks, 8 BBs, with a 5.54 FIP in 18.0 innings

Foster Griffin, the 24-year-old 6’3″ lefty, was arguably the best left-handed starting pitcher in a battered and beaten AAA pitching landscape. In a year with the introduction of the MLB baseball into both the Pacific Coast League and International league (a league seeing record amounts home runs and runs have been scored), Griffin was the most consistent LHP starter at the AAA level.

Looking beyond the inflated era and WHIP, Griffin pitched to a career low in line drive percentage while inducing a 48% groundball rate (his best since 2016). He, like many of the pitchers in AAA, has been stricken by a gaudy HR to Fly Ball ratio, which at 1.38 HR/9 was the highest of his career.

The statistics generated in AAA for the 2019 are to be digested similarly to Spring Training numbers. Pitching stats aren’t as bad as they appear and offensive numbers aren’t as good as they appear.

What matters in the case of Griffin was how he dealt with the struggle and improved in the last three months of the season. He experienced the nightmare pitching landscape, gaining the invaluable experience of learning how to get batters out by contact.

Griffin has typically been one of the younger pitchers at each level he’s pitched in. He was -5.6 years younger than his peers in the Dominican Winter League in 2019, -3.7 years younger than his peers in AAA for 2019, -2.1 years younger than his peers in AA for 2018, -3.1 years younger than his peers in AA for 2017, and -1.8 years younger than his peers in 2017. His numbers against younger peers are impressive and hold some promise for his future.

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Griffin possesses two quality off-speed pitches in his curveball and change-up. He has deception in his mechanics to allow his low 90s fastball to be effective when his command is right. Currently Griffin doesn’t utilize his legs to drive off the rubber and with right tweaks to his mechanics he could add another 2-3 mph onto his fastball.

If Griffin comes to Spring Training in 2020 and shows command of his pitching arsenal, I think he will surprisingly win the fifth spot in the rotation. If he adds some velocity to his fastball, the appropriate mixture of his pitches, and command to locations, he could be effective at the MLB level (projection: 4.80 ERA, 1.350 WHIP).

Foster Griffin reminds me a lot of Jeff Francis, who found success by generate weak contact in the launching pad of Colorado.

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If the Kansas City Royals want to exceed their win total from 2019, then not only do these pitchers need to bounce back for 2020, but they will need pitchers currently not on the 40-man roster to step up to the challenge and perform.

A bounce back from Danny Duffy and Mike Montgomery will be very important to increasing their trade value as each approaches free agency. Josh Staumont possesses the talent to become a shutdown reliever, something the Royals are in desperate need of. Foster Griffin should be able to lock down the fifth starter role until the Royals pitching wave of pitching prospects are ready for promotion by mid season.

2020 will be an important season for the Kansas City Royals in gauging how quickly they can change the franchise’s fortune for the next couple of seasons.