Kansas City Royals: Return of Alex Gordon could bring roster flexibility

It’s been an interesting offseason for the Kansas City Royals and now it looks like Alex Gordon could be returning to the team for the 2020 season.

As the party was about to begin with the Kansas City Chiefs putting away the Tennessee Titans to capture their 1st AFC championship in nearly 50 years, the Kansas City Royals entered into the final stages of re-signing their seven time Gold Glove winning left fielder. Alex Gordon is returning for what may be his final season in 2020 pending a physical on either Tuesday or Wednesday this week.

As an organization, the Royals have had quite a bit of change this offseason with new ownership taking over, a new clubhouse manager, and the passing of previous owner David Glass.

In regards to player acquisition and release the Royals have been quiet. The biggest news the Royals came in the first week of the offseason when the Royals made an astute financial decision and rejected their option on Alex Gordon’s $23 million remaining contract ($4 million buyout).

There has been much speculation on whether Alex Gordon would retire this offseason or return for a final season. The speculation on Gordon’s return appears to have an answer when Jeffrey Flanagan, the Royals beat writer for mlb.com and royals.com, tweeted during the second half of the AFC championship game:

Sources indicate the Royals and Alex Gordon are “getting close” on a one-year deal. Might be announced Tuesday or Wednesday after his physical.
— Jeffrey Flanagan (@FlannyMLB) January 19, 2020

The financials for Alex Gordon’s new contract for 2020 are unknown at the current time, but should be expected to come in around $5 million dollars (could land between $4 million to $8 million). The soon to be 36-year-old appears to be on his way back to Kansas City for one final season at a valued cost.

What this means for the 2020 season

This offseason, the Royals signed Maikel Franco to take over duties at third base moving two-time AL hit leader Whit Merrifield and breakout star Hunter Dozier to center field and right field respectively. The impending return of Gordon to left field projects the Royals outfield into a favorable position, one we haven’t seen since the 2011 Kansas City Royals had an outfield of Alex Gordon, Melky Cabrera, and Jeff Francoeur (worth 14.9 WAR).

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The 2019 Royals outfield, outside of Alex Gordon, produced very little offensive value (276 hits, 80 extra base hits, and 19 home runs). The 2020 Royals outfield with Gordon, Merrifield, and Dozier projects to produce 460 hits, 154 extra base hits, and 46 home runs. The offensive improvement for the Royals outfield is staggering alone.

Defensively, Gordon will be favored to retain his Gold Glove form even though he’s visibly lost a step or two in the outfield. Merrifield and Dozier project to be at least league average or slightly above average defensively in the outfield.

Dozier and Merrifield could be worth +4 WAR each if they continue their offensive onslaught with their defensive values seeing an increase with a move to the outfield. Alex Gordon should produce a WAR of 1.5 for the 2020 season with his steady production at the plate and exceptional defense value driving the way.

The Royals 2020 outfield could project for +10 WAR and that isn’t outlandish. The 2020 Royals outfield will be a dramatic improvement over the 2.1 WAR the outfield produced in 2019.

The 2020 Royals may have improved their roster offensively a great deal if Maikel Franco reaches his potential at third base (projected to hit .267/.329/.473, with 19 HRs, for 1.3 WAR in 2020) and Nicky Lopez performs to his potential at second base (projected to hit .272/.326/.377, with 35 extra-base hits, for 1.3 WAR in 2020).

The Royals have quietly used the money saved from rejecting Alex Gordon’s 2020 contract ($23 million) to dramatically improved their offense without bringing in a big name replacement for a great deal of money in free agency ($2.95 million for Franco and estimated $5 million for Gordon (plus $4 million buyout).

Contingency Plan

By getting Alex Gordon back onto the roster for the 2020 season, Dayton Moore and the Royals have stretched their roster flexibility to a point I’ve never seen before. The introduction of the 26th man on the roster will greatly help with the project roster flexibility for 2020.

Bubba Starling and Brett Phillips are each out of minor league options for the 2020 season and need to be retained on the MLB roster to avoid being made available on the waiver wire. Both Starling and Phillips are excellent fielders and possess enough speed and offensive potential to fill in if injury were to hit the Royals.

There have been rumors of Jorge Soler‘s continued work defensively and he could become another player who sees time in the outfield for 2020.

Adalberto Mondesi has been on the mend after his shoulder surgery this offseason and expected to be fully healthy by the start of the regular season. If Mondesi isn’t ready by the start of the season the Royals could play Nicky Lopez at shortstop and return Whit Merrifield to second base. The Royals would be expected to platoon Starling and Phillips in center field until Mondesi returns.

Ryan McBroom is also another player on the roster heading into 2020 who could see time in the Royals outfield. McBroom displayed tremendous offensive numbers in the minor leagues in 2019 and hit .293/.361/.360 in his 23 games with the Royals. If McBroom finds his power in the majors, then his bat will need to see more playing time and he could rotate into the outfield more often.

Khalil Lee (21-years-old) and Kyle Isbel (soon to be 23-years-old) are the Royals outfield prospects most advanced to take over a position in the outfield. Each possess solid plate discipline, modest power capability, excellent speed, and above average defensive potential.

Isbel currently possess the greater contact ability (project him to hit above .270) at this point in their careers, but Lee has the potential to be a 20 home-run and 30 stolen base threat in the outfield for the Royals for years to come.

Conclusion

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Dayton Moore hasn’t made any flashy offseason free agency signings, but the return of Alex Gordon and the signing of Maikel Franco have given the Royals incredible roster flexibility for the 2020 season.

The 2020 outfield with the return of Alex Gordon appears to be the most solid this collective group has been since 2011. The Royals should have a very competitive team offensively and defensively for the 2020 season in what will likely be Alex Gordon’s last season as a Kansas City Royals player.

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