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Kansas City Chiefs: False narratives before AFC Championship Game

By John McCarty

BALTIMORE, MD - JANUARY 11: Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) scrambles against the Baltimore Ravens on January 11, 2020, at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. in the AFC Divisional Playoff. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
BALTIMORE, MD - JANUARY 11: Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) scrambles against the Baltimore Ravens on January 11, 2020, at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. in the AFC Divisional Playoff. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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Smart people are making really unintelligent comments and observations leading up to the AFC Championship Game that will pit the Kansas City Chiefs against the Tennessee Titans.

If you see someone – anyone – talking about how the Kansas City Chiefs stopping Derrick Henry is important or ‘the key’ to the Chiefs winning the playoff game against the Titans, understand that person is now the victim of group speak. That narrative is fed by real, actual stats that tell a different story, but help to perpetuate a false narrative.

Let’s explore a few narratives.

Derrick Henry running the ball is what defeated the New England Patriots

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This narrative is so wrong that it hurts when people talk about it. Yes, Henry rushed for 182 yards and had a touchdown. Do we remember the Titans punted the football to the Patriots, giving the ball back to Tom Brady just under five minutes left on the clock, only needing a field goal to win?

Perhaps I should point out that the Titans offense scored a grand total of 14 points against the Patriots. Fourteen points – that’s it.

Make no mistake, the Titans offense had very little to do with winning the game. You can thank the combination of the quality Titans defense mixed with a Patriots offense we all saw and understand is completely inept.

In a game that truly helped create the narrative of Henry and Titans rushing attack, they scored 14 points. Keep that in mind.

Titans rushing attack shortens the game

When the Titans defeated the Patriots, they held the ball for 31 minutes. That’s not really shortening the game, but rather looks an awful lot like having the ball for half the game. Did you know against the Ravens, the Titans only held the ball for 28 minutes, technically losing the time of possession battle?

There is an old narrative that running the football wins the time of possession battle, shortens the game, and with a strong defense, you will win. The strong defense certainly played a part, but don’t get it twisted; Running the football did nothing to help the Titans shorten any game or control the time of possession.

Titans shut down the Ravens offense

For people who like to deep deeper into stats and data, they quickly realize how coaching decisions perhaps set the Ravens up to fail. Four times – yes, FOUR TIMES – the Ravens had drives that went for over 60 yards that combined for zero points. Again, four drives combined for zero points.

In total, the Ravens had a total of six drives that finished in Titans territory that resulted in no points. Turnovers and turnover on downs killed all kinds of scoring opportunities. In total, nine drives would get into Titans territory.

Yes, at the end of the game, the Ravens recorded two long drives. Titans were in prevent. Get it. Point still stands. The Ravens, all game, moved the ball against the Titans. All night long.

Titans offense is powerful

Of the four possessions that created points against the Ravens, one of those drives started on their own side of the field – One. The Titans took advantage of turnovers (good for them, it’s important to do that) and scored touchdowns on short fields, but they only had one true long scoring drive. Everything else resulted in punts.

Against the Patriots, it was somewhat of a different story, but with the same narrative. Both offensive scoring drives started at their own 25 yard line. Of course, they only had two scoring drives all game.

Beyond those two drives, the Titans’ longest drive is 44 yards on the game. That’s it. The Titans had four drives with four plays or less. Yikes.

Titans rushing attack will limit Chiefs offensive opportunities

In their Wild Card game against the Patriots, the New England offense had ten offensive possessions. The Ravens, who yes were down and had late desperation drives, had  11 offensive possessions. That is a good number of possessions allowing an offense to move the ball and score points.

For reference, if you eliminate the kneel down at the end of the Texans game (and PFF credits the Chiefs with a possession on the Tyreek Hill punt fumble) the Chiefs had 12 possessions in their game.  In each of their previous two games, the Titans opponents possessed the ball roughly the same number of times per game as the Chiefs did this past weekend.

In Summation

The KC Chiefs will have to come to play on Sunday if they want to reach the Super Bowl. That’s how it should be: to be the best, you have to face good teams who are playing good football. However, the Chiefs are and have been a far better team than the Titans.

The Titans defeated New England because the Patriots offense is terrible and the Tennessee defense kept the legend from getting into the end zone. Last week, the Titans turned Lamar Jackson over, creating short fields and John Harbaugh chose not to kick field goals.

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If the Chiefs can avoid turnovers, score points when the opportunities present themselves, and limit the Titans from making big plays, the Kansas city Chiefs will win the game on Sunday and we are all talking about Miami.

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