Kansas City Royals should consider signing Zach Wheeler

By Cody Rickman | Nov 9, 2019

PHILADELPHIA, PA - AUGUST 30: Zack Wheeler #45 of the New York Mets throws a pitch against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on August 30, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

The Kansas City Royals might not make a ton of noise in free agency this offseason, but they should still take a look into signing Zach Wheeler.

Zach Wheeler might be the best free agent starting pitcher not named Gerrit Cole and he still hasn’t reached his peak potential. If the Kansas City Royals new owner John Sherman wants to make a significant splash this offseason and announce that the front office believes this rebuild to success is coming soon, then signing Wheeler this offseason is a tremendous start.

Zach Wheeler has received a qualifying offer from the New York Mets this offseason and is likely to reject the offer and test free agency. The crowdsourcing free agency contracts post over at fangraphs.com predicts Wheeler will be in play for a contract in the range of 4 years for $68 – $72 million total ($17 – $18 million per year).

This ranks as one of the largest contracts ever handed out by the Kansas City Royals and would be a smart deal in my opinion. The Royals could win the bidding war by offering more than four years on the deal.

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Zach Wheeler (30 years-old in May) has pitched five seasons for the New York Mets, missing time between 2014 and 2017 seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery. Wheeler has pitched 749.1 innings of 3.77 ERA, 726 K’s, and 1.294 WHIP in his five-year career.

The last two seasons (2018-2019), Wheeler has had exceptional FIP numbers (Fielding Independent Pitching) producing a 3.25 FIP (vs. 3.31 ERA) in 2018 and a 3.48 FIP (vs. 3.96 ERA) in 2019. These FIP numbers suggest if Wheeler had a more competent defense behind him his numbers would be even better.

As most of the league pitchers were stricken by the home run ball, so was Wheeler in 2019. A move to Kauffman Stadium for half of his starts will likely help. The MLB is also looking into the baseballs used during the regular season and may make a change for 2020. A return to dominant pitching may be in line for the future of baseball.

Wheeler utilizes an effective four pitch mix of a plus fastball regularly averaging 96.7 mph, a plus-plus slider (91.2 mph), above average curveball (80.7 mph), and a plus change-up (88.8 mph). His improvements in his BB/9 and his hard hit rate are signs that he is becoming more knowledgeable about pitch selection and his best is still yet to come.

He has drawn comparisons in his career to Hall of Fame pitcher John Smoltz with his electric fastball and devastating slider mix. John Smoltz himself even made the comparison back in 2016 on MLB Network.

Wheeler has produced 4+ WAR in each his last two seasons, which would give him a value of $30 million per year. Some teams may be apprehensive about signing Wheeler this offseason, as there figures to be competition for his services and his price tag may rise above the projected four years/$68-$72 million.

He also has the injury history of having his UCL repaired and his upcoming 30-year-old season which may scare off some teams.

Wheeler has adjusted his mechanics and his success will be sustained through the length of his contract. The Royals should be on the look-out for a potential number one starter this off-season if there is substantial market value.

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Zach Wheeler is capable of putting together a string of 5+ WAR seasons if he has the defensive support behind him. The Royals would be a dark horse and unexpected winner in his free agency, but they could make a huge splash this offseason and sign in my opinion the second-best pitcher available and make him their ace for the next competitive Kansas City Royals roster.

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