Kansas City Royals: Checking on my five bold predictions for 2019

For the Kansas City Royals, the season ended over a week ago with a 5-4 win, just the 59th win of the 2019 season.

Now that the season is over, it’s as good a time as any to take stock of the five bold predictions I made for the Kansas City Royals before the season began. Overall, I was close to some, completely missed on others, and still need some time to assess others.

Bold Prediction No. 1: Danny Duffy Places in the Top 10 in Cy Young Voting

Verdict: No, But It’s Complicated

Danny Duffy began 2019 on the Injured List (RIP, Disabled List), made his debut in late April, struggled, went back on the IL in August, returned in September, and finished with a solid five-game streak. Overall, Duffy started 23 games, tossed 130.2 innings, went 7-6 with a 4.34 ERA, 1.309 WHIP, and 4.78 FIP while striking out 7.9 batters per nine innings. His WAR came out to 1.8.

According to Baseball-Reference’s Game Score, three of Duffy’s five best games came in September with his best outing occurring in his penultimate start of the season against the Oakland Athletics. Though the Royals lost 1-0 in 11 innings, it was no fault of Duffy’s. (It may have had something to do with Royals batters striking out 18 times.)

This particular September afternoon in Oakland, Duffy pitched seven innings and only gave up two hits while walking one. He struck out six batters as he threw a total of 103 pitches, 67 of which went for strikes. In the process of this game, Duffy’s ERA dropped from 4.54 to 4.30. His Game Score was 78.

Of his top three games in September, two of them came against playoff the teams: the aforementioned game against the A’s and his previous start against the Houston Astros. Duffy again received a No Decision in that outing as he went six innings, gave up four hits, two walks, and one earned run while fanning six.

In Duffy’s last outing of September, he defeated another playoff team, this time the Atlanta Braves. While his numbers were much more pedestrian against the NL East champs, it’s encouraging that Duffy pitched very well in his final three games of the season against three teams that reached the postseason.

Duffy, who will be 31 at the start of 2020, is under contract for another two seasons and just under a total of $31 million. Though he loves Kansas City, he’s often rumored as a trade candidate. It will be interesting to see how he fits into the plans of the new owner, John Sherman, and the new manager, whomever that might be.

But his September outings, coupled with some other stellar outings through 2019, gives hope that maybe, just maybe, Duffy’s breakout is finally just around the corner.