Fantasy Baseball: 2016 Bounce Back Pitching Sleepers

Scott Dillon

Rockies' pitcher injured - Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

As fantasy baseball season nears, pitchers who’ve disappointed in recent seasons are out to prove a point. Fantasy owners are set to reap the rewards.

Recently, KC Kingdom put together a list of bounce back position player fantasy baseball sleepers. Now it’s time to look at who’s going to be undervalued from the mound.

Unlike normal sleeper picks who’ve yet to prove anything in their career, these players were at one time very good or even dominate pitchers. Due to injury, poor performance, or mental meltdowns, these pitchers have fallen down the fantasy ranks.

All of these pitchers were selected based on Fantasy Pros ranking based on average draft position (ADP). It looks at each player’s average draft position in five different fantasy baseball platforms and gives each player a rank.

Before we dive into the pitchers who should be on your radar, it’s important to note a couple of things. All of these picks are based on the pitcher hopefully returning to their old form. More often than not in baseball, regression isn’t something that can be combated.

Take caution when drafting these players and don’t put all your eggs in one basket. These players should be quality later round pickups, but don’t jump the gun too early. If someone takes a chance on these players way ahead of schedule, good for them if it pans out. These picks are boom or bust, so it’s best to draft them where they’re projected and no sooner.

That’s enough of my mindless fantasy advice, here are the picks!

Next: Justin Time

Justin Verlander

ADP: 33rd pitcher – 120th overall (12th round)

Only a few years ago, Justin Verlander would be a value pick in the third or fourth-round. These days, you’ll be able to pick up the former MVP in the 12th-round.

Verlander had a terrible 2014 campaign which saw him slowed by injuries after he was phenomenal from 2009-2013. In 2014, he put up an ERA of 4.54 but he still managed to earn 15 wins. That’s what happens when you play for a team that scores runs in bunches.

Last season didn’t start out any better for Verlander, who missed most of the first half of the season with an injury. His first five starts of the season resulted in a 5.34 ERA and a 1.385 WHIP across just 30.1 innings. He also gave up six home runs in that span.

In the second-half of the season, Justin Verlander completely turned things around. He threw 103 innings across 15 starts which is good enough to average just under seven innings per outing.

He also posted an ERA of 2.80 and a WHIP of 1.000 in that time frame. His Ks/9 jumped from 5.3 in the first half to 8.3 in the second half and he only gave up seven home runs in those 103 innings.

In the second-half of the season last year, Verlander was in the top ten starting pitchers in both ERA and WHIP. He also was one of only six pitchers to log 100 or more innings in that time frame.

If he can start the season in 2016 like he finished 2015, he’ll be one of the best fantasy pitchers out there. He’ll also be a steal in the 12th round.

Next: Keep On Smiling

Drew Smyly

ADP: 45 pitcher – 157th overall (16th round)

Drew Smyly is another pitcher who has fallen down the draft boards because of his injury history. He’s missed time in each of the past two seasons including nearly the entire first half of 2015.

It’s what Smyly does when he’s on the field though that is so impressive. If you can pick up Drew Smyly in the 16th round, you shouldn’t hesitate to do so.

In the past two seasons, Smyly has struck out nearly a batter per inning. In 2015, his Ks/9 innings was at 10.4 which was good enough for eighth best in the league. His ERA was only 3.11 and his WHIP was only 1.17.

His strikeout rate was better than Noah Syndergaard and fell just behind Carlos Carrasco. Both of those pitchers had a much larger sample size last season than Smyly did, but both are going to go a lot earlier in the draft.

Both of those pitchers are being drafted in the sixth-round and if they’re available you should take them, but you may get similar production out of Smyly ten rounds later. It’s also worth mentioning that Smyly beat both of those players in ERA and fell just behind each of them in WHIP. Bottom line: Smyly is undervalued and you should take advantage of that.

Next: Medlen In Your Affairs

Kris Medlen

ADP: 102nd pitcher – 338th overall (Not Drafted)

Here’s the deal with Kris Medlen. He’s coming off his second Tommy John surgery and while he made some big appearances for the Royals in 2015, his fantasy numbers were less than stellar.

In 2015, he posted a 4.01 ERA but his Ks/9 were a career worst 6.2. He’s never been a high strikeout pitcher, and he’s not going to be. Surgery isn’t going to magically fix that.

What he could have going for him is his ERA. From 2012-2015, he ranked sixth among starting pitchers in the ERA category. That’s better than players like David Price, Johnny Cueto, and Felix Hernandez.

His record during that stretch of 2.74 ERA pitching is 29-13 also. While it’s near impossible for a pitcher to do anything to earn a win, it’s still a statistic that counts in fantasy baseball.

When you pick up Medlen off waivers, you can be sure you’re going to get a pitcher that’s going to give you his best. His best may not always be good enough so play the match-ups and pick him up off waivers to make a spot start if you need to.

Because his only reall chance to contribute is in ERA and wins, he’s probably not a player you want to waste a draft pick on. The good news is he’ll be overlooked and be available on waivers.

Next: Moore Money, Moore Problems

Matt Moore

ADP: 76th pitcher – 271st overall (Not Drafted)

Matt Moore had a terrible year in 2015 after he missed the bulk of the 2014 season with Tommy John Surgery. His terrible season could be your chance to replace a mistake of a pick as he’ll likely go undrafted.

In 2015, Moore posted a 5.43 ERA across 63 innings of work. He gave up nine home runs in that span and his strikeout rate was 6.6 Ks/9. His WHIP of 1.540 was bad enough for 12th worst among starting pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched.

There is some room for hope for Moore who is still a very young pitcher at only 26 years of age. From 2012-2014, he was 21st in baseball in Ks/9 with a strikeout rate of 8.64. His ERA was a respectable 3.54 in that time frame and for someone who was just cutting his teeth, that’s pretty good.

While most of 2015 was terrible for the young starting pitcher, he did show some good signs near the end of the season.

In his final six starts of the season, Moore posted an ERA of 2.97 and his WHIP dropped to 1.156. His strikeout rate also jumped to 7.2 which is far from great, but it’s a big improvement over his first six starts.

The confidence Moore gained in the final games of the season along with a full off-season of recovery time should make him a nice under the radar pickup for you.

Next: He's Going To Get Hurt

Patrick Corbin

ADP: 55th pitcher – 192nd overall (20th round)

Patrick Corbin is not going to be your best strikeout pitcher. He’s also not going to be your ERA or WHIP leader. He’s probably not going to lead your team in wins either, but he does play for a very good Diamondbacks team.

Corbin is another 26-year-old pitcher coming off a Tommy John Surgery, but unlike Moore, his 2015 wasn’t all that bad.

Yordano Ventura

ADP: 51st pitcher – 173rd overall (18th round)

Yordano Ventura had a rough go of things to start out the 2015 season. After he made himself look like the ‘Ace’ Ventura that he was supposed to be in 2014, things fell apart quickly for Ventura in 2015.

He couldn’t keep his mind on the task at hand which was striking out as many hitters as he can. He also wasn’t winning games and wasn’t preventing runs from scoring.

More from KC Kingdom

He posted a less than eye-popping ERA of 4.08 but his Ks/9 did spike to 8.6. He performed so poorly in 2015 that he was demoted to Triple-A, but an injury to Jason Vargas saved Ventura’s season.

After his demotion, something clicked for Ventura. He posted an ERA of 3.56 in the second half. He also upped his strikeout rate to 9.7 batters per nine innings.

It got better for Ventura the longer the season went on. In his final 13 starts, his ERA was 3.38 and his Ks/9 jumped to 9.9 and he was over 10 in his final seven starts.

In his 2014 season, Ventura posted an ERA of 3.20 and won 14 games. His WHIP is always going to be high until he learns to limit the free passes, but if his 2016 season can look more like his 2014 season with an increased strikeout rate he could be a top fantasy option.

Next: Other Options and Tips

Pitchers – Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports

The best part about fantasy baseball pitchers is that there are just so many options.

You should make it a point to get three or four rock solid starting pitchers, but don’t be afraid to wait until the middle rounds to get them. Power hitters are far fewer than quality pitchers so if you’re stuck between a 35 home run guy and a quality pitcher, take the hitter.

Here are a few more bounce back candidate pitchers that you could get in the later rounds:

Doug Fister – ADP 284th (Not Drafted)
Anibal Sanchez – ADP 250th (25th round)
Jaime Garcia – ADP 193rd (20th round)
Julio Teheran – ADP 171st (18th round)
Alex Wood – ADP 243rd (25th round)

There is always going to be a certain amount of risk with any of these players. Not just these players either, but in fantasy baseball in general.

Year after year, people lose their best players for weeks on end due to one injury or another. It’s going to happen, the best thing you can do to prepare for that is do your late-round research and build up some quality depth.

If you have a solid bench, it makes it easy when someone gets hurt or under performs their draft value. It’s going to happen, you just have to be prepared. There is nothing worse than losing two of your top options and having to scour the waiver wire for a replacement.

Next: 2016 Fantasy Baseball Roto Mock Draft

Fantasy baseball drafts are often long and very time-consuming, but it’s worth sticking around until the very end. While everyone else is in auto-draft mode, you can be cherry picking your sleepers and bounce back candidates.

So what do you think fantasy baseball fans? Who are your pitching bounce back candidates for 2016? Who is on this list that isn’t going to rebound? Let me know your thoughts in the comments’ section below.

Scott Dillon

I was born into a family of Royals and Chiefs fans and wouldn't have it any other way. I lived in enemy territory (Bronco Country) for a while, but I'm back in the promise land now. Proud of my City, my teams, and my fellow fans.