Fantasy Baseball: 2016 Bounce Back Sleepers Position Players

Scott Dillon

What players are ready to overcome an injury? - Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Fantasy Baseball drafts are rapidly approaching. Here are a few players who’ve fallen from grace but are poised to come roaring back.

As Spring Training action reveals more and more about the upcoming season, you’re probably preparing for your fantasy baseball draft. The problem with making plans that fixate on certain players is that there is almost certainly someone else out there who also has an eye on them.

It’s always best to have a backup plan, and always be on the lookout for a late-round gem. There are always players that fall to the later rounds for one reason or another and this article will focus on those players.

These players aren’t traditional ‘sleepers’ because these are players who have been top performers in the past. Injuries or just poor play have caused these players to fall down the draft rankings and at least a couple of them should be worth a flyer.

I wouldn’t recommend betting your making these players your primary acquisitions, and again there is probably someone else out there who could be thinking the same thing. Don’t be surprised if these players come off the board a little early and don’t be upset if they do. The best part of fantasy baseball is the plethora of options at every position.

This list will use Fantasy Pros compilation of average draft position (ADP) for 2016 fantasy baseball. It compiles the average draft position of each player across five different fantasy platforms and in turn ranks the players.

Alright, enough chit-chat. Let’s get to the players who could be primed for a big year but may not be valued all the highly.

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Yan Gomes – Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

Catcher: Yan Gomes

ADP: 11th Catcher, 214th overall (22nd round)

Yan Gomes was one of the most valued catchers entering the 2015 campaign. His 2014 campaign saw him perform like one of the top catchers in the league, but an early season knee injury in 2015 derailed any hopes of a repeat performance.

In 2015 he only played in 95 games, which is 40 games fewer than he saw in 2014. He was also trying to get his timing back for most of the season. In the final month of the year he saw season highs in doubles, batting average and slugging percentage.

In spite of only playing in 95 games last season and only 88 games in 2013, Gomes is among the top catchers over the last 3 years. Here is are his three-year rankings in each of these categories among catchers.

Home Runs: 44 – Rank: Sixth
Batting Average: .267 – Rank: Seventh
Slugging Percentage: .449 – Rank: Fourth
Doubles: 65 – Rank: Seventh
OPS: .759 – Rank: Sixth

He also has accomplished these rankings with a lot less playing time than the people in front of him. In 2014, his best year, he was a top-five player in all of these categories and he finished second in slugging percentage. Buster Posey was the only player better in that area.

No one is saying that Yan Gomes is going to be Buster Posey, but if you need a quality catcher in the later rounds, Yan Gomes should be available.

Next: Not K-Mart But A Good Value

Victor Martinez – Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

First Base: Victor Martinez

ADP: 29th First Baseman, 224th overall (23rd round)

Victor Martinez had been one of the most consistent hitters in the American League until last season. He did miss the entire 2012 season with an ACL injury but batted over .300 in both 2013 and 2014 following the injury.

In 2014, Martinez was second in the American League MVP race and won a silver slugger award for his best offensive season ever.

2015 saw Martinez fall apart after a Spring Training knee injury really put a damper on his season. He posted a batting average under .300 for the first time since 2009, and his .245 average was the worst of his career.

A lot of that could have to do with his injury, but he was also 36 years old last season. It’s not surprising that a player of his age wasn’t able to replicate his 2014 season, and you shouldn’t expect him to.

The good news for fantasy baseball fans is that he is fully healthy this year. You also don’t have to burn your pick on his in the second-round, where he was taken in 2015.

There are excellent signs for Martinez in Spring Training so far this season also. While Spring Training stats are about as reliable as a home mortgage offer that appears in your junk folder, it’s still encouraging to see him hitting the ball hard. He’s only got five hits, but two of those are home runs and he’s batting over .300.

It should also be reassuring that he bats in a very hitter friendly lineup. The Tigers have good hitters from top to bottom and that means pitchers are going to have to challenge Martinez with pitches he can put good wood on. Don’t be afraid to take a run at him in the later rounds. He could be the best value pick on this list.

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Dustin Pedroia – Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Second Base: Dustin Pedroia

ADP: 16th Second Baseman, 170th overall (17th round)

Dustin Pedroia is another player who missed a significant amount of playing time last year. It was the first time since 2010 that he failed to play in 100 games, but he still put together 12 home runs in only 381 at-bats.

It was nice to see Pedroia get back to double-digit home run totals last season. He hadn’t done that since his 2012 season when he hit 15 home runs.

Third Base: Anthony Rendon

ADP: 10th Catcher, 89th overall (Eighth round)

Anthony Rendon is an intriguing third base option because he’ll also qualify as a second base player. If you can manage to snag him where he’s projected to go, it could be a steal for you.

You should still try and get one of the top third base options of the board early. Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, and Nolan Arenado should be your primary targets but Rendon is a good second option or middle infield option.

He missed a significant amount of time last season due to injury, but he plays for a very good Washington Nationals team. They should score a ton of runs and Rendon owners are going to reap the rewards if he’s healthy.

In 2014, he ranked among the very top of all second basemen in baseball. Here are his numbers and ranks in some top offensive categories:

Batting Average: .287 – Rank: Sixth
Home Runs: 21 – Rank: Second
Runs: 111 – Rank: Second
Slugging Percentage: .473 – Rank: First
RBIs: 83 – Rank: Second
Doubles: 39 – Rank: Third

Again, those numbers are among second base players during the 2014 season. Hopefully, he hits more home runs this season than Daniel Murphy did in the 2015 postseason.

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Troy Tulowitzki – Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki

ADP: 3rd Shortstop, 45th overall (Fifth Round)

Troy Tulowitzki is one of the most frustrating fantasy players on the planet. He’s probably worth a first-round pick all the time, but he’s so injury prone that every fantasy owner is taking a huge risk when drafting him

He did not play well for the Blue Jays when he left the hitter friendly confines of Coors Field. It’s just too hard to believe that he’s not going to find a way to produce in that lineup.

If he can stay healthy and take advantage of the good pitches he’s going to see, it’s hard to see how he’s not the top fantasy shortstop available.

From 2013-2015 here’s how he ranks among shortstops:

Home Runs: 63 – Rank: First
RBIs: 204 – Rank: Second
Batting Average: .306 – Rank: First
On-Base Percentage: .381 – Rank: First
Slugging Percentage: .517 – Rank: First

The fact the Tulowitzki is so injury prone also landed him on this list of potential busts. It’s literally boom or bust with him as he’s bound to lead the league in either home runs or days on the disabled list.

He is definitely worth taking in the fifth-round of your fantasy draft, but I’d recommend a backup.

Next: A Longshot In The Outfield

Alex Gordon – Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Outfield: Alex Gordon

ADP: 52nd Outfielder, 187th overall (19th Round)

If Alex Gordon is going to bounce back, he needs to bounce way back. He’ll need to return to 2011-2012 form to become one of the top fantasy outfielders in 2016.

Age isn’t on his side, but he’s finally fully healthy this Spring. 2014 had Alex Gordon dealing with a nagging wrist injury. It caused him to miss some time in Spring Training during the 2015 season, but he finally started showing some of his old form near mid-season.

That’s when a groin injury caused him to miss two months of action and completely derailed his shot at a good fantasy year.

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In 2011, Gordon hit 23 home runs and carried a .303 batting average with him. His on-base percentage was .376 and his slugging percentage was .502. He was hitting doubles in bunches.

Before the Groin injury last season, Gordon seemed to have figured things out. In June and July, he batted .288 with a .420 on-base percentage. He also hit five home runs in 104 at-bats. That’s a better home run rate than his 2011 season that saw him hit a home run every 26 at-bats.

If Gordon, who’s now had a full off-season of healthy preparation, can replicate numbers like that over 150 games, he could hit around 25 home runs and 30 doubles. He’s in a lineup that should seem him offered some protection. The Royals ‘keep the line moving’ mentality should offer up plenty of pitches over the plate.

He’s out to a good start this spring batting .400 with two home runs. This could be a big year for Alex Gordon.

Next: Those Candidates That Just Missed The List

Matt Holliday – Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

There are plenty of valuable picks out there. While a bad season may not be good for players, it can help savvy fantasy owners on the prowl for a late-round value pick.

As with any form of fantasy sports, there is going to be a certain degree of risk with any of these players. The good news is that because they’re projected to be drafted so late, it’s not a huge loss if they don’t pan out.

I wouldn’t recommend taking these players higher than they’re valued, but I wouldn’t hesitate to grab them if their projections roll around and they’re still out there.

Here are a few players who could have bounce back years, but I didn’t have enough faith in to fully recommend:

Matt Holliday – ADP 210th overall
Jayson Werth – ADP 336th overall
Devin Mesoraco – ADP 179th overall
Mark Reynolds – ADP 492nd overall (See any player for the Rockies)
Evan Longoria – ADP 113th overall

As fantasy baseball approaches, it’s always good to have a plan of attack. It helps if you know the position that you’ll be drafting in. If you’re in an auction league, set yourself a budget for each player. It’s hard to stop when you’ve reached your limit, but it’s important to try.

Next: 2016 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Some of the players on this list are going to go way too early. Some of these players may not go at all. It’s even better if you can grab up a great player off waivers to replace a pick that’s not producing.

So what do you think fantasy baseball fans? Which of these candidates is the biggest bounce back candidate for 2016? Who shouldn’t be on this list at all? What players do you see as viable bounce back candidates? Let me know your thoughts in the comments section below.

Scott Dillon

I was born into a family of Royals and Chiefs fans and wouldn't have it any other way. I lived in enemy territory (Bronco Country) for a while, but I'm back in the promise land now. Proud of my City, my teams, and my fellow fans.