As the regular season approaches, so does fantasy baseball. See what value pitchers will be available in the late rounds.
No matter what kind of league you’re in, there are going to be good pitchers that slip through the cracks and make it to the end of the draft. That could mean a player not getting selected until the final rounds of a snake draft or being able to pick up a player for one dollar in an auction draft.
These players are going to be considered ‘sleepers’. Choosing the right sleepers could be the difference between playing meaningful fantasy baseball late in the season, or looking ahead to fantasy football.
A ‘sleeper’ is not a player that you want to burn a high draft pick or a lot of money on. Inevitably, every league is going to see some ‘sleepers’ get taken too early or have too much money spent on them.
The goal is to use your early picks on the sure things. If someone throws out a ‘sleeper’ that you’re eyeballing early in an auction draft, know your budget ahead of time.
All of these sleepers are going to fall outside of the top 60 starting pitchers in both points and rotisserie rankings according to ESPN.com. They’ll also fall outside the top 200 overall rankings in the rotisserie format. This assumes that you’re in a standard ten-team league with 25 spots on each team.
Let’s get to those ‘sleepers’!
Next: Ham-Bone!
Jason Hammel
Roto-rank: 83rd starting pitcher/282nd overall
Points rank: 68th starting pitcher/10 points per game
Jason Hammel has won ten games in each of the last two seasons. Last year he struck out 172 hitters across 170.2 innings of work. He was ranked 29th in the MLB in the strikeout department.
The key with Jason Hammel is knowing when to part ways with the pitcher. He is extremely effective and can be one of the most reliable pitchers on your team, but it’s probably best to look elsewhere after the All-Star break.
In his career, Hammel is 49-40 in the first half of the season while only 20-37 in the second half. His ERA of 4.06 is more than a full point better than his second half ERA of 5.15.
Last season, Hammel struck out 105 batters across 103.2 innings of work in the first half. His WHIP of .945 before the All-Star break was good enough for fifth in the league among pitchers with at least 100 innings of work. He would finish the year ranked 30th in that category.
2014 was similar for Jason Hammel. He had a 3.01 ERA across 113.2 innings in the first half of the season with a strikeout rate of 8.5/9 innings. In the second half, he had a 4.31 ERA across 62.2 innings and his strikeout rate dropped to 7.3/9 innings.
Because of his poor end of the year numbers, Hammel has a good shot at being available in the later rounds. There’s nothing wrong with riding the hot hand until the heat wears off. There will be plenty of valuable players available on the waiver wire to replace his production in the second half.
Next: Made of Glass
Tyler Glasnow
Roto-rank: 79th starting pitcher/273rd overall
Points rank: Unranked
Tyler Glasnow isn’t likely to be drafted at all in a fantasy league this year and if he is, it will likely be at the very end. If the league you’re in is a keeper league he could already be gone. He’s one of the most prized minor league arms available, and will go quickly when he gets his call-up.
That call-up is expected to happen sometime during the 2016 season. Keep a close eye on his minor league production. Adding him a couple of weeks before he gets promoted will look like a savvy move and will ensure you snag him before someone else does.
He’s the perfect player to insert into your rotation in place of Jason Hammel after the All-Star break. That, of course, assumes that he is in the Major Leagues at that time.
In his Minor League career, Glasnow has been very effective. Don’t let his lack of MLB experience scare you away from taking a flyer on this young prospect.
In his four years of professional baseball, Glasnow has posted an ERA of 2.07. He also has 501 strikeouts across only 383.1 innings of work. The 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings are numbers usually seen among relievers, not starting pitchers.
Glasnow’s biggest problem is his inability to limit his walks. 4.2 walks per nine innings is the biggest reason his WHIP is over 1.000 because he’s only given up 228 hits.
He’s had success at every level of the Minor Leagues and there is no reason to believe he’ll stop succeeding when reaching the big stage. With pitchers like Jon Niese and Ryan Vogelsong in the rotation, it’s only a matter of time before Glasnow gets a shot.
Next: South Side South Paw
Carlos Rodon
Roto-rank: 100th starting pitcher/325th overall
Points rank: 96th starting pitcher/10.6 points per game
Carlos Rodon averaged a strikeout per inning as a rookie last season. His ERA of 3.70 for the year isn’t truly indicative of just how good he was.
Over the final two months of the season, Rodon made a total of nine starts and averaged 6.2 innings per start. The only outing in that time that didn’t see him post a quality start was August 5th.
He rattled off eight straight quality starts to end the year. He also earned five of his nine wins in those final nine games with a ERA of 2.28 across just under 60 innings of work.
If he pitches like that next season, not only are the Royals going to be in some trouble, but Chris Sale isn’t going to be the only elite left-handed pitcher for the White Sox.
His walks are a little concerning, but he’ll harness his control more and more as he develops in the league.
His ability to strike people out, limit the runs, and earn wins should make him a solid fantasy play for the entire season.
He was widely regarded to be the best left-handed college pitcher to be drafted since David Price was selected in 2007.
Rodon had much better numbers in his rookie campaign than Price did in his. That’s no indication or statement that Rodon is better than David Price, but if his ceiling is as high, it’s wise to take Rodon while he’s still a ‘sleeper’.
Next: Looking To Help Repeat
Ian Kennedy
Roto-rank: 92nd starting pitcher/304th overall
Points rank: 84th starting pitcher/10.3 points per game
Ian Kennedy may be the least safe pick out of the bunch. It’s a good thing you wont be taking him until the very end of the draft.
Ian Kennedy played in a pitcher friendly park in 2015 and still yielded ugly results. He gave up a lot of home runs for a total of 31 on the season. No matter how bad the Padres defense may have been behind him, it’s hard to blame that if the balls were flying over the fence.
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There is some good news though. Of those 31 home runs, 20 of them came in the first half of the season. His strikeout numbers also spiked in the last two months of the year. Though he didn’t see a big dip in his ERA at that time, the increased strikeout rates are a good thing in terms of fantasy value.
He should see at least some ERA boost from the improved defense behind him. With the Royals’ great defensive outfield, plenty of extra-base hits should be run down. That should mean less people on base when those home runs are given up.
Just because a pitcher gives up home runs doesn’t necessarily make him a bad play in a KC Royals uniform either. A decent comparison for Kennedy may be last year’s teammate and former KC royal, James Shields.
James Shields gave up 33 home runs last season for the Padres compared to only 23 the year before with the Royals. Even 2013 saw James Shields give up 20 home runs. The difference for Shields was his ERA.
In 2015, Shields posted an ERA of 3.91 for the Padres. His ERA in 2014 and 2015 was 3.15 and 3.21 respectively. That’s a good sign for Ian Kennedy.
Next: Rebuild In Full Effect
Jerad Eickhoff
Roto-rank: Unranked
Points rank: 150th/8.8 points per game
The Philadelphia Phillies had a very highly touted prospect last season in Aaron Nola. Nola didn’t disappoint in his limited time with the big team, but there was another rookie pitcher who outperformed Nola.
Jerad Eickhoff was part of the package that sent Cole Hamels to the Texas Rangers last year. With the Phillies’ season being over from opening day, Eikhoff got his chance to start almost immediately following the trade.
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In his eight big league starts, Eickhoff only failed to finish the sixth inning of a game one time. He also posted seven quality starts in those eight outings.
He only pitched 51 innings in his debut but he struck out 49 batters in the process. He also only walked 13 batters so his control is above average, especially for a rookie pitcher.
His ERA was 2.65 and his WHIP was just 1.04 in his 51 innings of work. Among starting pitchers who threw at least 50 innings last season, Eickhoff ranked 11th in WHIP and ninth in ERA. That’s a very small sample size and he’ll have to perform over the course of a full season for those rankings to have any value.
Perhaps the most impressive thing, is that he managed these numbers in spite of playing for arguably the worst team in baseball last year. Don’t let the fact that he plays in a strong division make you shy away from Eikhoff at the end of the draft or as an emergency addition from the waiver wire.
He made four of his eight starts against the Mets and the Nationals. All four of those starts resulted in a quality start and his last two starts of the season came against each of those teams. Each game saw Eickhoff go seven innings and strikeout ten batters. He earned a win in each of those games.
If he can sustain a full season of these types of performances, he could be considered a steal in the late rounds. In deep keeper leagues, he could be valuable for a long time.
Next: Sleepers Abound
The best thing about starting pitchers when it comes to fantasy baseball is that there are so many options.
Unlike a Major League baseball team, you have the benefit of constructing your rotation with virtually any pitchers you want. Most real teams are lucky to have more than one elite starting pitcher, if any at all.
Every team is going to have someone labeled their ‘Ace’ and you get to benefit from that. 30 ‘aces’ equates nicely when selecting a rotation in a ten team format. Even a 12 team format allows you to put together a pretty solid rotation.
Basically that means options abound for fantasy baseball players. There is a seemingly endless combination of starting pitchers you can use.
One of the benefits to using undervalued starting pitchers is you can add and remove them from your team at will. If you need to boost your win totals, you can swap players from the waiver wire only to recapture your old players in a few days.
Next: 2016 Position Player Fantasy Sleepers
These one day ‘rentals’ can be very effective and change the outcome of your season. So what do you think fantasy baseball fans? Which of these players do you have your eye on? Did anyone make the list who shouldn’t have? Who is on your radar in terms of fantasy sleepers in the pitching department? Let me know your thoughts in the comments’ section below.