Every year, fantasy baseball sees players taken too early, or having too much money spent on them in auction drafts. These are known as busts.
A ‘bust’ can mean a variety of things, but for this article let’s consider a bust to be someone who will finish statistically worse than their preseason rank.
I’ll use ESPN’s average draft position (ADP) for each position player in this list to determine who may be drafted just a little bit too quickly. A great spot to find average draft positions across multiple sites in right here.
I should preface this list by stating the following. Not all of these players are going to have bad years. They aren’t all going to be players you regret having in your lineup, but they may be players you could have gotten later or you could have gotten a better player in their place.
Some of this players may be good to start the season, but may wear quickly. While winning early in the season is important, it’s also important to find players that will produce throughout the year and who can produce when the fantasy playoffs begin.
So these players may not actually be ‘busts’ in the truest sense of the word. They’re also not all players that could leave you in bad shape. They are simply players that should be avoided in the early rounds. Someone will likely take these players too soon and regret it later.
That being said, let’s get to the picks!
Next: World Series MVP
Catcher: Salvador Perez
ESPN ADP: 5th catcher, 118th overall
Salvador Perez is one of those players who could wow everyone in the first half of the season, but he’s also one who may disappoint as the season goes on.
Last year, Salvador Perez finished the season with a .260 batting average, 25 doubles, and 21 home runs. His power production dropped off drastically in the second half, just as it’s done in the past couple of seasons.
From 2014-2015, Salvador Perez has hit .260 with 53 doubles, 38 home runs, and 140 RBIs. He’s also only walked a total of 35 times in that span, so when he’s not hitting, he’s not getting on base.
It’s his drop off in the second half that’s alarming. His second half stats over the past two seasons are as follows: 24 doubles, 12 home runs, and a batting average of just .239. His first half stats have him hitting 28 doubles, 23 home runs, and a batting average of .272.
There are simply more reliable options over the course of a full season than Salvador Perez. While he’s still a good fantasy play early on, he’s not someone you want to depend on when you’re trying to find your way into the playoffs.
Salvador Perez isn’t a bad player. He was the MVP for the Royals in the 2015 World Series and he’s one of the most beloved players on the team. He’s a leader and well liked in the clubhouse. Intangibles don’t win fantasy leagues though, statistics do.
Next: The Broken Down Machine
First Base: Albert Pujols
ESPN ADP: 13th First Baseman, 86th overall
Spend early and spend often when it comes to first basemen, but don’t do it on Albert Pujols.
A few years ago, Albert Pujols could have easily been justified as a first-overall pick. He’s no longer ‘the machine’ that he was then. He’s constantly dealing with an injury of some kind and his power comes with a low average.
If he’s still available late in the draft, by all means, you should take him and be happy that you got him. He did hit 40 home runs last season, but he’s also dealing with a foot issue that could see him hobbled and missing some time.
He’s a career .312 hitter, but his last three seasons have seen him hit .258, .272, and .244 respectively.
His slash line of .244/.307/.480 saw him at career worsts in both batting average and on-base percentage. It’s also well below his career slash line of .312/.397/.591. His decline began a few years ago and this could be the season where the wheels fall of.
Someone is almost certain to draft this player too early or bid way too much money on him in auction draft formats. Don’t let that player be you. There are far too many other options with a more well rounded game than Albert Pujols.
Next: Spee-Dee
Second Base: Dee Gordon
ESPN ADP: 2nd Second Baseman, 17th overall
Dee Gordon had a monster year in 2015. His .333 batting average was the highest average in the national league among qualified players. But there are some warning signs that come with that average.
He only hit four home runs last season. He’s not likely to develop a lot of power and start hitting more home runs. He also only slugged .418 which isn’t in the top 18 players in the league, but was good enough for 18th best among second basemen.
His ability to swipe bags is by far his biggest asset. While he stole 58 bases, he was also caught 20 times. If your league uses net steals instead of gross steals, then he only totaled 38 stolen bases.
The biggest red flag with Dee Gordon is his statistics in BABIP and ISO. His batting average on balls in play, was third best in baseball last year at .383. His ISO, or raw power statistic, was .085 which was tenth worst in the league.
Dee Gordon is going to be an asset for someone, but he’s not worth the 18th overall pick in the draft, and he’s not worth being taken as the second overall second baseman.
Ian Kinsler is set to be drafted as the sixth second baseman, and is likely to hit double digit home runs, steals, and hits in a lineup that should see plenty of RBIs and runs scored. He offers much better value and much more production.
Next: The Todd-Father
Third Base: Todd Frazier
ESPN ADP: 5th Third Baseman, 28th overall
Todd Frazier is a good player, and he’s going to hit a lot of home runs. He’s not good enough to be taken in the third round as your best third base option.
Last season, Todd Frazier hit 35 home runs with a slash line of .255/.309/.498. He also hit 43 doubles and had 89 RBIs. He also played for a very bad Cincinnati Reds team that didn’t offer him much protection in the lineup.
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Now he figures to play in a lineup that should produce some pop and some protection. He’ll likely hit next to Jose Abreu which should ensure he get’s some pitches to hit. He also hit beside Joey Votto last year and that didn’t do much to help his second half.
In the second half of 2015, Frazier hit 17 doubles and only 10 home runs. He also slashed .220/.274/.390 with only 32 RBIs.
While a lot of people attribute that drop off to his participation in the home run derby, there is no proof that he’s done anything to correct it. He is having a decent Spring Training so far, but that means little in the long run.
If you can get Frazier in a later round, go for it, but don’t make him a high priority. He might hit like a third-round pick for a while, but could end the year at the bottom of the barrel.
Next: Coming Up Short
Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki
ESPN ADP: 3rd Shortstop, 46th overall
Troy Tulowitzki has played in just 392 games out of a possible 648 games over the last four seasons. From 2012-2015 he’s played in 47, 126, 91, and 128 games respectively. If you believe in trends at all, it would appear Tulowitzki is due for another really short season.
Here are two sets of stats from 2015:
- Player A: .275/.334/.411 – 26 doubles, 17 home runs, 71 RBIs
- Player B: .280/.337/.440 – 27 doubles, 17 home runs, 70 RBIs
Player A is ranked the 12th best shortstop according to average draft position in ESPN drafts. Player B is ranked 3rd at his position. Do you see a lot of differences between player A and player B? Player A is taken in the 16th round in standard leagues compared to player B in the fourth round.
Player B, as you’ve probably figured out, is Troy Tulowitzki. He’s hitting in the middle of a very potent Toronto Blue Jays lineup so he should be a good play, but he didn’t hit that well when he joined the team last year.
With the Blue Jays, he only slashed .239/.317/.380 with five home runs and eight doubles. He was hurt for part of the time, surprising I know, so he’s got that excuse going for him.
While Player A, Jhonny Peralta, is going to miss some time this season with a thumb issue, these draft positions were calculated prior to the injury. Bottom line: Someone is going to overpay for 14th round production in Troy Tulowitzki.
Next: Not A Bust, But Over Valued
Outfield: Andrew McCutchen
ESPN ADP: 4th Outfielder, 8th overall
Andrew McCutchen isn’t going to be a bust in 2016. He’s probably going to be one of the most reliable players that you could grab up.
There are other players you could use that 8th overall pick on and still replace McCutchen’s production in a later round. Nolan Arenado, for example, is a player going later than McCutchen but with much better projections.
McCutchen is projected to slash .298/.393/.500 with 9 net steals, 21 home runs, 33 doubles, and 79 RBIs in 2016. Arenado is projected to slash .285/.326/.521 with 37 doubles, 27 home runs, and 89 RBIs. Arenado hit 42 home runs last season compared to McCutchen’s 23 so the projections could be a little bit off.
Let’s use a Player A vs. Player B scenario from 2015 again:
- Player A: .265/.312/.443 – 23 home runs, 31 doubles, 100 RBIs, 10 net steals
- Player B: .292/.401/.488 – 23 home runs, 36 doubles, 96 RBIs, 6 net steals
Player B is Andrew McCutchen. While his slash line, blows player A’s slash line out of the water, the rest of the stats are comparable.
Player A, is projected to go 79th overall and is the 25th best outfielder according to the ESPN ADP projections. Player A is Matt Kemp.
I’m not saying Matt Kemp is as good as Andrew McCutchen and he’s certainly not as reliable. I’m simply trying to prove that you don’t have to waste your first pick on a big name.
Next: 'Bust' May Have Been A Reach
Not all of the players on this list are what most people would consider ‘busts’. Most, if not all, of them can be replaced in later rounds though.
Fantasy baseball is a magical time of year for ‘stat heads’ everywhere. It’s a chance for people that love numbers to pit their projections against the projections of other like-minded individuals.
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While every team can benefit from having a few superstars, there are going to be a handful of players that are taken based on their name alone.
From a real life standpoint, all of the players on this list are valuable members to their teams. The best part about fantasy sports is you’re not bound to work within those confines.
You can construct your lineup however you see fit.you can work to replace overvalued production elsewhere in the draft. You can make trades and add and drop players at will. It’s every managers dream, which is why it’s called fantasy baseball.
Next: 2016 Fantasy Sleeper Pitchers
There are going to be players that don’t live up to expectations taken near the top of the draft. Rookies that have a lot of promise won’t come through as expected and will be considered a bust. Others are going to be taken at the end of the draft and will be top performers or ‘sleepers See some of those in the link above). It happens year after year.
What do you think Fantasy baseball fans? Who on this list is going to live up to the hype? Who is going to be taken too quickly. Let me know your thoughts in the comments’ section below.