The MLB season is right around the corner, fantasy baseball drafts are going to start taking shape. See what players could be available late in the draft.
Last year, players like Stephen Vogt, Chris Colabello, and Ryan Rayburn were projected to have less than stellar seasons. They all provided plenty of value for their owners both fictionally and in real life.
Every season, there are going to be players that fall to the end of draft. They’ll sit idly by waiting to join their fantasy team as All-Stars like Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and Clayton Kershaw get drafted.
Round by round, these valuable but under appreciated players wait to see their name called. Just like the Royals have done in the past couple of seasons, these players blow their projections out of the water and take their team by storm.
These players are known widely as ‘sleepers’ in the fantasy sports community. Being able to correctly snag a sleeper is both rewarding and justifying.
Tim Heaney of USA Today defines a ‘sleeper’ as the following:
"Fantasy baseball sleepers come in many different forms. Whether they’re taken in the early, middle or late rounds of fantasy baseball drafts, they’re the players that are primed to outperform their market price."
Using the fantasy rankings for Roto leagues from ESPN, this list will pick one player per position that’s potentially ranked a little bit too low.
Next: Catcher
Nick Hundley
20th among catchers and 436th overall
Nick Hundley posted career highs in batting average, doubles, triples, and steals last season. He also came close to career highs in slugging percentage, OPS, and RBIs.
He finished in the top three among catchers last season in stolen bases, batting average, and OPS. It should be noted that he only stole five bases and was caught stealing on six occasions. If your league counts net steals, Hundley would have been in the minus category.
Nick Hundley only hit ten home runs last season and while it would be great to get more production, most catchers typically aren’t worth a high draft pick.
Catchers miss a lot of time unless their name is Salvador Perez. Only three catchers in 2015 totaled more than 500 at-bats. Those early picks are better spent on everyday players.
When it does come time to select a catcher in the late rounds, Nick Hundley will more than likely still be available. He’s not going to be in the running for MVP, but he could well finish in several top categories among catchers again.
He plays in the very hitter friendly Coors’ Field and has a good-hitting team around him. Being protected in the lineup and having RBI opportunities only further increases his value.
Next: First Base
Mitch Moreland
26th among first basemen and 278th overall
Chances are, you’ll take a good first basemen early in the draft. There is a premium on Home Runs and RBIs in fantasy baseball and first base is one of the best sources for those categories.
A lot of formats are going to give the opportunity to have a corner infield position or even designated hitter positions that can be filled by anyone.
If Mitch Moreland is still available in the late rounds of the draft, he’s worth a pickup.
Moreland has hit 20 plus home runs in each of his last two healthy seasons. He missed a lot of the 2014 season with injuries, but bounced back better than ever in 2015.
His slash line of .278/.330/.482 and his OPS of .812 were career highs. He finished 12th among first basemen in both home runs and slugging percentage.
He was also in the top ten in RBIs. He plays for another team that scores a lot of runs so he’s fairly protected in a lineup with players like Prince Fielder and Adrian Beltre around him. They were third in the league in runs scored last year and he should have plenty of chances to drive in runs.
Next: Second Base
Devon Travis/Ryan Goins
Travis: 24th among second basemen 275th overall
Goins: Unranked
This one is a two for one special.
Devon Travis is likely to be a steal no matter what format you’re in. If you’re in a keeper league, he may get kept in spite of his injury because of how good he is. He’s worth stashing in a DL spot if you have one available.
He played through an injury for part of the season last year. Across 62 games and just over 200 at-bats he hit 18 doubles, eight home runs and knocked in 35 runs. He also added three stolen bases.
If he can come back healthy, he could be a nice boost for a team late in a season. Just looking at what his numbers could have been over a full season is incredible.
Just for speculation’s sake, here’s what his numbers could’ve looked like in only 500 at-bats. That’s 138 at-bats less than the leading second basemen last year.
Assuming he kept the same pace across those at-bats. He could have done something like 38 doubles, 18 home runs, and 80 RBIs. All good enough for top three among second basemen last year.
Ryan Goins is likely to be his replacement until he comes back. Goins is a sleeper simply for the players batting around him.
He’s not a top second basemen by any means, but as far as sleepers go, he’s a decent enough pickup. Last year he hit 16 doubles, four triples, five home runs, and knocked in 45 RBIs. He also scored 52 runs and all of his production came in only 376 at-bats.
If nothing else, he’s a nice fill-in player until Travis is able to play. Blue Jays players are going to get on base and score runs. It’s what they do.
Next: Third Base
Danny Valencia
20th among second basemen 234th overall
It’s not hard to believe that Danny Valencia hit 18 home runs in 2015 considering he played for the Blue Jays for part of the year.
That’s a little deceiving however, because 11 of his 18 home runs came after he went the the Oakland Athletics. He did so in 11 fewer games, but did have about 20 more at bats.
He averaged a home run in about every 20 at-bats during the entire season, and that rate jumped to one every 15 at-bats after going to Oakland.
His slugging percentage was second only to Josh Donaldson and Nolan Arrenado last season and with Brett Lawrie gone, he should be the A’s everyday third baseman.
Valencia isn’t likely to be anyone’s target as a first third baseman, but if he’s still available in the later rounds he’s an excellent second option or corner infield option.
If he could continue that production over 575 at-bats in 2016, his numbers could be quite impressive. That projects into 38 doubles, 30 home runs, and 110 runs batted in.
Those numbers would certainly be worth an early round pick and anything close to that would be incredible in the later rounds.
Next: Shortstop
Eugenio Suarez
23rd among shortstops 355th overall
Troy Tulowitzki is ranked second among shortstops according to ESPN’s fantasy baseball rankings. Last season he batted .280/.337/.440.
He hit 17 home runs and 27 doubles in his time between the Rockies and the Blue Jays last season. The Rockies finished fifth in baseball in total runs scored while the Blue Jays finished in first place.
In 2015, Eugenio Suarez batted .280/.315/.446 for the Cincinnati Reds. He added 13 home runs and 19 doubles for the team that finished 26th out of 30 in runs scored.
Troy Tulowitzki had over 100 more at-bats than Suarez did and they put up very similar numbers. The difference is, Tulowitzki played in a lineup that kept him protected and should have seen him getting good pitches to hit.
Suarez probably wont be one of the top shortstops in the league next season. But this should show that value can be found at the shortstop position outside of the early rounds.
Someone is going to spend an arm and a leg on Troy Tulowitzki in an auction draft. Suarez will probably be available for one dollar at the end.
He’s probably not what someone wants in their primary shortstop position, but in a middle infield spot or leagues that allow two shortstops, he should provide plenty of late-round value.
Next: Outfield One
Dexter Fowler
66th among outfielders 257th overall
How any of the outfielders for the Cubs can be ranked so low is somewhat surprising. They have one of the most solid lineups in baseball and should score runs in bunches.
Dexter Fowler had a great season for the Cubs last year and recently shocked everyone by going back to them for less than his original qualifying offer.
Dexter Fowler projects to be the lead-off man with some combination of Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Kyle Schwarber behind him. He also got on base last season at a clip of .346, but he has a .363 career on-base percentage.
The people behind him coupled with his propensity for getting on base could have him scoring well over the 102 runs he scored last season. 102 runs was good enough for fifth best among outfielders last year so he could become even more valuable.
He’s not just a one trick pony either. He hit 17 home runs and stole 20 bases last season. With the lineup around him, he’s going to get even more pitches to hit and could drive in more runs as well.
Dexter Fowler has a chance to be a top 30 outfielder this season and should be available late in any draft format. Just like the Cubs, he could be the late addition you need to go far this season.
Next: Outfield Two
Eddie Rosario
82nd among outfielders 348th overall
Eddie Rosario had a good rookie year for the Twins last season but was overlooked due to the performance of fellow rookie Miguel Sano.
While Sano is the second-year player to target for the Twins, Rosario should be someone who flies under the radar all the way towards the end of the draft.
Call to the Pen
Chances are he won’t even be drafted. He’ll likely be a player that can be picked up after the draft is over. If he can build upon his 2015 numbers, he’s well worth a flyer.
In 122 games last season, he collected 121 hits for a slash line of .267/.289/.459. His slugging percentage was good enough for 33rd among outfielders last year. Extra-bases are typically very fantasy friendly so his slugging percentage alone makes him look like a late-round steal.
He hit 18 doubles, 13 home runs, had 50 RBIs, and also had 15 triples last season. He’s no slouch on the base paths either as he swiped 11 bags. He was caught six times, but he should become better at stealing bases the more experience he gathers.
Everyone underestimated the Twins last season and they shocked a lot of people by nearly making the playoffs. They should be better in 2016 and with plenty of offensive firepower around him, Rosario could turn into a solid fantasy play.
Next: Outfield Three
Jarrod Dyson
Unranked
Billy Hamilton is ranked 38th among outfielders and 119th overall. That, ladies and gentlemen, is ‘what speed do’.
Here’s a look at each players numbers from 2015:
Billy Hamilton:
- Slash line: .226/.274/289
- Doubles: Eight
- Triples: Three
- Home Runs: Four
- Stolen Bases: 57
- RBIs: 28
- At-Bats: 412
Jarrod Dyson:
- Slash line: .250/.311/.380
- Doubles: Eight
- Triples: Six
- Home Runs: Two
- Stolen Bases: 26
- RBIs: 18
- At-Bats: 200
While a portion of Jarrod Dyson‘s stolen base stats come from his pinch running, he’s certain to steal more bases if he get’s more at-bats.
The Royals are currently projecting Dyson as their right fielder. He’ll at least split time with Paulo Orlando unless someone really emerges in Spring Training.
Here are what Dyson’s numbers project at over the same amount of at-bats, 412, that Hamilton saw last year:
Dyson’s ‘Could Be’ numbers:
- At-Bats: 412
- Doubles: 17
- Triples: 12
- Home Runs: 4
- Stolen Bases: 52
- RBIs: 37
Again, Dyson’s numbers are slightly inflated in the steals department because he’s taking advantage of someone else getting on base. That doesn’t mean more opportunities will yield less results.
If he splits time, he’s still able to enter the game as a pinch runner late in the game so he could inflate his steals even more.
If Dyson is named a starter, he could be a sneaky pick at the end of the draft that could help you win a steals category. He’s not going to help you out much in the batting average or power departments, but steals are an important category as Billy Hamilton’s ranking would indicate.
Next: Synopsis
There are an endless number of players that could be classified as sleepers. These are just a few of many.
There are all kinds of outlets for information, strategies, rankings and more. There are also numerous types of fantasy baseball league to choose from. Each has their own unique flavor. Here’s a video from Yahoo Sports with a little information about auction drafts:
Any Royals’ fans that are reading this list should know that projections are all well and good, but the game isn’t played on paper.
There are a number of outside factors that weigh on every game including weather, team chemistry, health, and a myriad of other potential deterrents.
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It wouldn’t be a shock if all of these players finish the season at a higher level of play than was projected for them. It wouldn’t be at all surprising if they all finished worse either.
With so many games, and players readily available to any team, any player is capable of getting benched or a chance to start at any point in time.
There are always a handful of players who breakout, over-perform, or under-perform their projections, and hopefully some of these players can help a team out in 2016.
Next: Projected Royals Lineup 2016
So what do you think Fantasy Baseball fans? Who will be a ‘sleeper’ pick in 2016? What players from this list do you like? What players do you hate? Let me know your thoughts in the comments section below.