Wil Myers: Did the Kansas City Royals sell High
By John Viril
Former Kansas City Royals prospect Wil Myers was dealt in the second mega-trade of his short career on Wednesday, moving from Tampa Bay to San Diego in an 11-player, 3-team swap.
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Given Myers status as a former no. 4 overall prospect in baseball, and 2013 rookie of the year, I can’t help but wonder why two organizations would give up a cost-controlled 24-year-old. Or, as Fangraphs .com writer Dave Cameron asked, “What’s wrong with Wil Myers?”
Cameron examined Myers, trying to identify why both the Royals and Rays would give up on a young prospect with a perceived high upside. Cameron found that Myers contact rate is sub par, and did a study which showed that hitters with similar contact rates only become impact players if they slug for power.
Since Myers has only put up a .160 isolated slugging percentage in his short major-league career, Cameron thought both the Royals and Rays had good reason to question Myers’ future.
This new thinking is rather interesting, given that most of the sabermetric world blasted Royals general manager Dayton Moore for the Myers trade. I, also, thought it was a terrible deal.
Two years, and one World Series trip later, the Royals have clearly won that trade.
Yet, Cameron’s work makes the deal look better than ever before. The Royals come out ahead even if you presume Myers will develop into a star, because getting a team to the World Series after breaking a 29-year playoff drought brings so many positive effects to both the fan base, and free-agent targets, that the cost is clearly worth it.
If Wil Myers turns out to have less upside than was widely believed at the time, then Dayton Moore did a great job maximizing Myers’ value.
The haul from the Myers trade not only includes a reinvigorated fan base and national relevance, but also should bring more credibility to the organization among Latin-American prospects. In short, Kansas City’s world series run will not only bring a financial windfall, but could help the Royals sign international prospects and free-agents.
The other thing we will have to come to grips with is increased respect for Kansas City’s front office.
I thought the Royals might be preparing to make a deal to land a starting pitcher, but it looks like Moore doesn’t want to trade away any of the near major-league ready prospects in the pipeline. The Royals system is a bit short of talent in the high-minors, and Moore wants the farm to produce a regular stream of prospects.
That desire might explain why Moore has signed 3 mediocre free agents to more than $48 million in contracts. While he clearly overpaid for talent, Moore’s deals for Kendrys Morales, Alex Rios, and Edinson Volquez are all short-term contracts. None of them will block his prospects, and Moore filled Kansas City’s holes without compromising his talent pool.
Thursday’s addition of the recovering Kris Medlen (Tommy John surgery in March of 2013) is another short-term risk (2 years), but Medlen has higher upside than any of the above players.
Given what looks to be a good call on Wil Myers upside, the fact that Moore didn’t want to deal his prospects to land a headline pitcher might bode well for the talent in the system.