The Wrong Chiefs RB is Being Credited as Touchdown Threat vs. Steelers on Christmas Day
The Kansas City Chiefs offense still hasn't scored more than 30 points in a game this season, but things are starting to click as the playoffs approach, having scored 3 touchdowns in each of the last two games. Those contributions have been spread out nicely within the offense too, as five different players have found paydirt in that stretch.
The Chiefs are projected to score 23.5 points by FanDuel Sportsbook betting lines this week (2.5-point favorites in a game with a 44.5 over/under), but it's interesting to see who is getting credit as a potential touchdown scorer.
Ultimately, it's proof that people still don't understand how this Chiefs offense operates — which could explain why everyone is still trying to pretend there's reason to be concerned as the playoffs approach. Whether you're just preparing to watch another big Chiefs win on the holiday or you're looking to place a TD scorer bet to make the game extra interesting, you'll be surprised to see who is getting recognized in the predictions.
Chiefs vs. Steelers Prediction: Two Obvious TD Scorers Emerge
FanDuel has odds for "any time TD scorer" in this game, which is a bet that pays out if the player scores at all. And it's like bettors haven't watched either of the last two Chiefs games. Just check out the rankings (a lower number means they're projected more likely to score, and accordingly offers a lower payout):
- Isiah Pacheco (+155)
- Travis Kelce (+175)
- Kareem Hunt (+185)
- Xavier Worthy (+260)
- DeAndre Hopkins (+280)
It's not always as simple as saying "This guy hasn't scored lately, so he's not a good pick to score this week." But also, sometimes it kind of is that simple. Pacheco hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 1, and we're supposed to believe he's the most likely Chief to score?
This is the same Isiah Pacheco that has exactly 1 red zone carry and 0 red zone passing targets over the last two weeks. The same Isiah Pacheco who has received that workload while Kareem Hunt has 5 red zone carries and Xavier Worthy has 2 red zone carries (plus 6 targets) during the same stretch.
Hunt has been quite obviously the Chiefs' preferred red zone and goal line back since joining the team. And Andy Reid's creative (sometimes too creative) red zone play calling doesn't leave a ton of chances for straightforward runs at the goal line. Worthy having as many red zone carries as Pacheco in December highlights that nicely.
The Steelers have, admittedly, been a reasonably solid red zone defense this season. They're allowing TDs on only 53.9% of opponents' red zone trips, the 12th-lowest rate in the NFL. The Chiefs have also been pretty brutal in the red zone, ranking 26 with a 51.7% TD rate.
But those are basic stats that are almost certainly being factored in at the game level here. What isn't getting properly accounted for is the pecking order of Chiefs TD scorers.
Whether you're trying to figure out who to start in fantasy football, want to place a bet, or just want to get a feel for what's going to happen in this matchup, there's one thing that's reasonably clear. Kareem Hunt isn't getting nearly enough credit for his TD potential, and neither is Xavier Worthy, whose newly expanded red zone role gives him extra chances to score while his speed also means he remains a threat to score from anywhere on the field.
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