The Chiefs Will Expose Jalen Hurts' Biggest Weakness in Super Bowl 59
The last time the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles met in the Super Bowl, Jalen Hurts had an outstanding game. It wasn't enough to carry the Eagles to victory, but it was arguably the best game he played all season, and he's the reason that game was as close as it was.
Don't expect a repeat performance on Sunday.
Hurts has one massive weakness that only some teams are capable of exploiting, and fortunately for Chiefs fans, KC is one of the best-positioned teams in the league to do just that. Hurts' passing yard over/under is set at 211.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook, but even that is significantly overrating his chances of having a big game here.
Chiefs vs. Eagles Prediction: Jalen Hurts Can't Handle the Pressure
To identify why the Chiefs are so well positioned to dominate Hurts, let's first look at the common threads in his worst games of the season.
Hurts' Success Hinges on Opponents' Pass-Rush
PFF has given Hurts a strong offensive grade of 79.3 this season, but he's fallen below 70.0 in eight of his 18 games. The average ranking of those eight opponents in PFF's pass-rush grade is 12th, while the average for his other 10 was 18th.
Every single one of the seven games he played against teams ranking better than 15th in pass-rush saw Hurts rank below his season-long offensive grade. Three of his top four games of the season were against teams that ranked bottom-five in pass rush.
Hurts' Numbers Against Pressure
We can narrow things down onto a more individual level for Hurts too. PFF tracks quarterbacks' play against pressure compared to when they have a clean pocket. As you'd expect, just about everyone performs better from a clean pocket. But some passers handle pressure better than others.
Patrick Mahomes, for example, ranks 12th in PFF grade from a clean pocket and 14th when pressured. His grade drops from 91.0 to 67.3, but that doesn't change his ranking much because other QBs see similar drops.
Hurts, on the other hand, ranks No. 10 in a clean pocket this season (91.6) but an absurd 58th when pressured (41.1). That ranking puts him just ahead of Spencer Rattler (59th) and Dorian Thompson-Robinson (60th) but behind Anthony Richardson (57th), Tommy DeVito (56th) and Drew Lock (55th).
In a clean pocket, Hurts can be as dangerous as Mahomes. Under pressure, he's more like Drew Lock.
Can the Chiefs Exploit This?
Short answer? Yes.
The Chiefs' defense may not have put up a huge sack total this season, but the underlying metrics show no issues getting to the quarterback: they rank 5th in PFF grade and 5th in Pro-Football-Focus' pressure rate. Even against the Buffalo Bills, who PFF grades out one spot ahead of the Eagles in pass blocking this season, the Chiefs defense recorded a combined 26 pressures in the AFC Championship.
This pass rush is also supported by some elite secondary play, with the Chiefs ranking No. 5 in PFF's coverage grade.
So whether you're a bettor looking to cash in on Hurts going under 211.5 yards (something he's only done in two of his last six full games anyway) or just a Chiefs fan excited to see the team make history with a three-peat, the Chiefs getting consistent pressure on Hurts will make Super Bowl 59 exactly the type of game you'll want to see.
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