Seth Lugo's Cy Young Odds Ignoring One Major Factor
By Joe Summers
Seth Lugo should be the leading candidate to win AL Cy Young. He's been a revelation for the surging Royals, leading the American League in wins, innings pitched, and ERA with Kansas City winning nine of his 12 starts.
Despite Lugo's dominance, he's disrespected in AL Cy Young betting odds. Lugo has the sixth-best odds (+1600) to win the award at FanDuel Sportsbook, though historical precedence reveals just how special the pitcher's season has been so far.
By winning each of his first six road starts with a 0.86 ERA, Lugo is in rarified air, suggesting he's still a value in the markets.
Seth Lugo Off to Historic Start With Royals
Seth Lugo of the @Royals is the second pitcher in the modern era to win each of his first six road starts of a season while also allowing 0/1 runs in each one.
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) May 30, 2024
The other is Greg Maddux, who did so in the first seven road starts of his Cy Young-winning season of 1995. pic.twitter.com/KTJYnFKZJJ
Greg Maddux finished that season with a 19-2 record and 1.63 ERA in 209.2 innings with 181 strikeouts and 23 walks. Lugo can fall well short of those statistics and still post a spectacular season worth recognizing, especially if the Royals keep winning.
There's some projection in Lugo's betting odds and perhaps he won't keep up this level of dominance all year long. Even still, he's started 12 times with strong underlying metrics, limiting concern for massive regression. Just like the club as a whole, Lugo's start looks real.
Here's a look at the top six in odds with some surface-level stats:
Pitcher | Record | ERA | Innings | Strikeouts | Walks | Odds to win AL Cy Young |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal | 7-1 | 1.97 | 73.0 | 86 | 13 | +180 |
Corbin Burnes | 5-2 | 2.35 | 72.2 | 71 | 20 | +460 |
Luis Castillo | 5-6 | 2.99 | 78.1 | 81 | 22 | +1200 |
Tanner Houck | 5-5 | 1.85 | 78.0 | 75 | 15 | +1200 |
Cole Ragans | 4-4 | 3.21 | 73.0 | 89 | 24 | +1400 |
Seth Lugo | 9-1 | 1.72 | 78.1 | 66 | 18 | +1600 |
Lugo trails the five ahead of him in strikeouts but otherwise, his stats compare very favorably. There's a long way to go in the season though Lugo has a great argument to be named the All-Star Game starter at the least. While he's risen considerably in Cy Young odds since the start of the campaign, I'd give him the award if the season ended today.
He had 43 strikeouts in 40.1 innings in May after notching only 19 in 32 innings in April. If Lugo can keep his strikeout numbers up while giving the Royals a quality start in most cases, he'll be deserving of Cy Young votes.
His teammate, Cole Ragans, is off to a terrific start too. I'd give Lugo the nod, though Kansas City has two bonafide candidates regardless. Lugo is already proving to be MLB's most shrewd offseason signing, perhaps he'll get some hardware in a few months as well.
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.