Royals vs. Twins Best Bet and Prediction for Saturday, March 30

Seth Lugo makes his debut for the 2024 Royals today
Seth Lugo makes his debut for the 2024 Royals today / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The Royals' offense crumbled on Opening Day, plating just one run against presumptive Cy Young candidate Pablo Lopez in a 4-1 loss despite a nine-strikeout day from Cole Ragans. Kansas City will now send Seth Lugo to the mound for his first start with the team to take on Joe Ryan and the Twins at 3:10 PM CT for the second game of the series.

Lugo had a 3.57 ERA for the San Diego Padres last year and allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his final nine starts. Ryan is no slouch in his own right, but faltered down the stretch with a 5.28 ERA in September.

Given Minnesota's status as the team to beat in the AL Central, it's important for Kansas City to start the year on a high note and take at least one game from their division rivals. Let's take a look at the updated odds before diving into my best bet for the contest.

Royals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line and Total

Royals vs. Twins Prediction and Best Bet

The Royals are +110 home underdogs with a total set at 8.5, and I expect another low-scoring game on this beautiful Saturday afternoon.

Until a rough ninth inning for Chris Stratton, Kansas City's pitching staff only allowed two runs. Lugo had a legitimate claim to being the Opening Day starter in his own right and I expect him to limit Minnesota's lineup, especially with Royce Lewis set to miss time following an injury. Lugo's consistency helps set him apart, as he allowed more than three runs just five times in 26 starts in 2023.

The Twins led MLB in strikeouts last year and Lugo should be able to take advantage of it. On the other side, I don't expect massive offensive output from the Royals either. Ryan has a 5-0 record and 1.50 ERA in six starts against Kansas City and we don't have furious winds blowing out to center like we did on Thursday.

Take the under on the total in what should be another tight affair that goes down to the wire.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.