All signs point to a dominant, double-digit victory for the Kansas City Chiefs over the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football this evening.
The Chiefs are listed as 10.5-point favorites as they gun for an unfathomable 16th consecutive win over their division rival. While the Chiefs have struggled to cover large spreads on the road, a double-digit spread at home typically results in a Kansas City rout.
Against this Broncos team in particular? The trends are overwhelming.
Trends Point to Chiefs Blowout Win Over Broncos
In the Chiefs' last seven games as double-digit favorites at home, they're 5-2 against the spread while covering by an average of 13.6 points per game in the wins.
That means they're winning those games by at least 24 points on average! Kansas City's defense has been particularly stout, holding each of those five opponents to 10 points or fewer. Given how well the Chiefs are playing defensively, I expect another smothering performance tonight.
Then, of course, there are the trends specific to this matchup. Denver hasn't beaten Kansas City since September of 2015, compiling a woeful 5-10 record against the spread (ATS) in those 15 losses. The Broncos have been more competitive of late, but their defense is the worst it's been in years and gives the Chiefs an edge.
Thanks to that defense, the Broncos are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games, giving up an average of almost 35 points per game in that stretch. The over is a ridiculous 9-1 in Denver's previous 10 games, providing more evidence that we're in for a Chiefs offensive explosion.
With a chance to put the nail on Denver's coffin and end the Broncos' season before it even gets started, you can bet Patrick Mahomes will be ready.
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