The Chiefs are in the driver's seat for the No. 1 seed in the AFC for the playoffs, though there are several threatening teams not far behind.
We know about the improvements Kansas City needs to make collectively, especially on offense, but we've yet to discuss the three keys to the Chiefs securing the top seed in the conference.
These three factors are crucial for Kansas City to host the AFC Championship game for the sixth consecutive year:
3 Keys to Chiefs Claiming No. 1 Seed in AFC Playoffs
1. Improving Red Zone TD Efficiency
The main problem plaguing the Chiefs' offense is red zone scoring.
Kansas City ranks 15th in red zone TD efficiency, finding the end zone just 54.55% of the time. That's a gigantic decrease from last year's 71.08% figure (2nd in NFL) and has been an issue the entire year.
I thought the acquisition of Mecole Hardman would help alleviate the issue, though the Chiefs' offense is still shaky and failed to score a single TD in the loss to the Broncos.
Chiefs with some great opponent scouting on that Rashee Rice TD.
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) November 5, 2023
Empty formation just like the Eagles a few weeks before. Dolphins bring Cover 0 (just like they did against the Eagles) and the Chiefs counter it with a WR screen. pic.twitter.com/KOEu64B4nd https://t.co/9WgC24O9S2
Through nine weeks, Patrick Mahomes is completing just 56.4% of his red zone passes while averaging 3.8 yards per attempt.
Getting Rashee Rice more involved seems like the most logical solution. He easily leads Chiefs receivers with eight catches on 11 red zone targets with four TDs while displaying a savvy understanding of zone coverage and impressive burst on screens.
Harrison Butker is automatic, but the Chiefs need to start finishing drives to win the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
That's not the only key for Kansas City moving forward, as you'll see on the next page.
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2. Reducing Turnovers
The turnovers are getting out of hand and nearly everyone needs to improve.
Kansas City has 17 turnovers, tied for second-most in the NFL ahead of only the lowly Chicago Bears. Incredible defensive efforts from guys like Trent McDuffie have generated a lot of turnovers as well to protect the offense, but we can't keep giving the ball away and expect to win a Super Bowl.
Following Patrick Mahomes' fumble, the Chiefs have committed 17 turnovers this season, tied for most in the NFL with the Browns.
— Nate Taylor (@ByNateTaylor) November 5, 2023
While not every interception was his fault, Patrick Mahomes is the biggest culprit here. He has eight interceptions, pacing for a career-high, and has made multiple questionable decisions seemingly out of frustration.
There's plenty of blame to go around. Mecole Hardman and Richie James both muffed points in critical moments, while Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Blake Bell have all been stripped to fumble the ball after making a catch.
Turnover differential is one of the best predictors of future success. Unless Kansas City starts protecting the football, we could be in for another shocking upset like we saw in Week 8.
The offense must improve in those two areas, though the Chiefs are 7-2 for a reason. Our final key to the No. 1 seed focuses on maintaining a pleasant surprise.
3. Maintain Excellent Pass Defense
I can't say enough good things about this defense.
The Chiefs rank fourth in opponent yards per pass attempt (5.5) and second in opponent points per game (15.9), utilizing creative schemes to confuse offenses and wreck havoc.
Kansas City held three of the last four QBs it faced to less than 200 passing yards and it looks like this defense is only getting better as the season progresses.
Chiefs defense is 2nd in points per game, 4th in yards per game, while being 18th in opponents red zone scoring (TD%). They are 11th in takeaways. This tells me this isn’t a fluke. This defense is legitimately elite while not relying on forcing turnovers or red zone dominance.
— Sterling Holmes (@HomestretchKC) November 7, 2023
We know about McDuffie's breakout, but spectacular seasons from players like George Karlaftis have been a huge boost as well.
Drue Tranquill is a revelation in the linebacking group, Willie Gay Jr. is enjoying a career-best year, Chris Jones is still dominant, L'Jarius Sneed fears no one, etc.
How else do you get plays as cool as this one?
WHAT JUST HAPPENED?
— NFL (@NFL) November 5, 2023
AN ABSOLUTLEY WILD @Chiefs TOUCHDOWN IN FRANKFURT.
📺: #MIAvsKC on NFL Network
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/d4RDZpceuE pic.twitter.com/0NsmitP43O
If the Chiefs hold on and secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC, this outstanding defense will be the main reason why.
It'll face stiff tests in the second half of the season with matchups against the Eagles, Bills, Bengals and Chargers left. I have faith in this unit's ability and I can't wait to watch how the next couple of months play out.
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